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The advertising industry has experienced monumental change over the last few years. To offer members the crucial insights they need to stay ahead in these unparalleled times, the ARF conducts original research that tackles our industry’s most pressing questions. Look at our exciting agenda below.

The Attention Validation Project

The Attention Validation Project

ARF CEO and President Scott McDonald announced the launching of this project at the Attention 2022 event, with the goal of better understanding the different attention metric tools that exist, their validity, reproducibility and rightful application, whether analyzing advertising creative or the media environment. This is important, as attention metrics are beginning to be moved from the lab to the marketplace. The study aims to parse out differing definitions of attention and emotion and their relationship to direct measures of neurometric response. It will also evaluate synthetic measures of attention, based on A.I. and machine learning approaches.

Format & Schedule: The ARF has formed a Brand Steering Committee which includes senior researchers at Coca-Cola, LinkedIn/Microsoft, MARS and McDonald’s, among others. Preliminary mapping of the attention measurement market has begun, the results of which will be presented at the ARF AUDIENCExSCIENCE 2023 event this April.

The study’s output will be an Attention Atlas whose aim is to add transparency to vendors’ positioning, methods and deliverables. Phases two and three of the study will focus on creative attention and media attention solutions. The Atlas will include best practice recommendations, proposed standards for adoption by auditing organizations such as the MRC, and key questions that buyers of these services should ask when evaluating prospective vendors.

To learn more, email Paul Donato-ARF CRO at: pdonato@thearf.org.

IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING PRIVACY FRAMEWORKS ON MARKETING & MEASUREMENT

Implications of Changing Privacy Frameworks on Marketing & Measurement

A growing number of privacy regulations and data deprecations are creating a complex landscape for marketers to maneuver through. To help us better understand how these forces affect marketing and marketing effectiveness measurement, the ARF recently conducted a Delphi study with a group of experts, from both practitioner and academic backgrounds, to discuss the key issues and outline ways forward. This report is the result of that effort. It includes an overview of the latest privacy-related macro-trends, implications for marketing and measurement and offers actionable recommendations.

Format: The report is now available on our website and through PowerSearch.

PROJECTS SUPPORTING MRC STANDARDS

The Effect of Time of Duration and Attention on Advertising Effectiveness

The objective of this study was to discover the link between ad exposure and ad attention. When it comes to time duration, is a fifteen-second video ad twice as valuable as a seven-second one? The ARF’s neuro and biometric research found that the relationship between time of exposure and impact is curvilinear, typically flattening out between eight and 12 seconds.

Format & Schedule: The ARF covered the results in an online event with Meta and T-Vision in March 2022 entitled What is the Value of Time in Advertising? (Part I: How Value is Created). Part II covered the implications for the research industry. The content is being written up as a report to be published in mid-2023.

2022 ARF Media Model

The first ARF media model was developed in the 1960s and updated again in 2002. The model’s purpose is to provide a conceptual framework from which to understand and teach how media and advertising work and to help marketers to develop better media campaigns.

A conceptual and graphical model was updated in 2022. It will be put on our website early in 2023. As a graph, the model is a series of nodes and edges. In the next phase of the model, we will attempt to put coefficients on edges such as those between exposure and attention.

Format and Schedule:
We expect to put out an empirical model in late 2023.

WHAT BRANDS DID IN 2020 AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET SHARE

What Brands Did In 2020

Les Binet’s original telecast posited that the strength of share of search is a leading indicator of market share with a six-month lag. Is it true and does it hold up in today’s digital landscape? The ARF is evaluating search behavior from 2015 through 2022 and beyond, to see how the pandemic and supply chain dependencies may have impacted this relationship. Normally, the relationship varies by category with hard goods showing a stronger relationship than CPG. Did that change when major CPG brands were no longer available?

Format and Schedule: The event was held this January. The video and presentation deck are available on our website. The full report will be available in mid-April 2023.

The Relative Contribution of Media vs. Creative

The Relative Contribution of Media vs. Creative

What is the contribution of media, ad creative and targeting when it comes to the success of an ad? A 2015 NCS study suggested it was 50% creative and 50% everything else, while a recent MMA survey among CMOs concluded there are three contributors: media, creative and brand. But CMOs tend to be brand focused. Another important question is the contribution of targeting and where it belongs in the framework.

The ARF is partnering with Media Science to conduct an experiment that looks at the relative contribution of these four factors.

Format and Schedule: The project will be completed in mid-2023. It will be published as a formal report and presented in a live venue.

The ARF Universe Study of Device and Account Sharing (DASH)

How many Americans share the username and password of a streaming service with a friend or family member? How many use someone else’s account from outside their household? On what types of devices do viewers use different apps? And how much co-viewing occurs on televisions compared to other devices? How many Amazon accounts does a four-person household typically have? The ARF’s Study of Device and Account Sharing investigates these and other such questions. This is a syndicated study intended to create standards and common references from which companies can develop weights, personification and other factors used by modelers.

Format and Schedule: This study began in 2021. It is run annually in two waves, spring (May and June) and fall (September to October). Full-year 2022 results are available now as is the 2021 data. Licensees of both years get access to a rich longitudinal sample.

The study is licensed at three levels – (1) a basic subscription which will be delivered in a Tableau database, (2) a basic + subscription that provides anonymized person-level data and (3) premium which can be matched at a household level with your panel, CRM data or other first-party data set.

Read the report: TV Deconstructed: Latest Findings from the DASH Study, Full Year 2022.

Learn more at the study’s website here.

The ARF Diversity Report

The US is more diverse and multiracial today than at any time in its history, according to the 2020 US Census. It is predicted to become even more so over time. As a result, many companies are beginning to increase their focus on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI). These efforts are occurring both inside of organizations and in their marketing efforts. This could be to their benefit. Studies have shown that a commitment to DEI can increase profitability, productivity, employee retention and consumer engagement.

A recent review of the current state of DEI in the market research industry, marketing industry and the general workplace, however, shows that many issues remain. To help member companies in their own DEI efforts, the ARF is releasing its Diversity Report. While there is certainly no “one-size-fits-all” approach, the report highlights best practices and offers actionable insights.

Format & Schedule: The report is now available for purchase on our website, with one hundred percent of the proceeds going to the ARF WIDE initiative. WIDE awards need-based scholarships to students of promise from diverse backgrounds, to increase diversity in the advertising and research industries while also helping these students achieve their goals.

The 5th Annual Privacy Survey

One of our most anticipated studies both for membership and the press, our fifth annual report (see last year’s report here) contains the perennial questions regarding mobile and PC usage, willingness to share digital data, trust and how well privacy terms are understood. This year’s version also looked at changes in what information the public is willing to share and in what circumstances they are willing to share it. One significant finding was a six percent drop in the number of Americans concerned about online privacy, as compared to last year (48% to 42%).

Format and Schedule: The study is conducted every spring with results released in the fall.  The 5th Annual Privacy Survey is now available on our website and through PowerSearch. We issued the e-report in September 2022. 2021’s report and all others are available here. This year’s survey will be launched in April. Contact your member ambassador should you desire access to any of the raw data for re-analysis.

The Future of Panels & Big Data

The future of media and marketing research will be a combination of panels and big data. Indeed, the WFA’s current cross-platform initiative calls for such a hybrid solution.

Panels once called “truth sets” have lost some credibility as online response rates discount any sense of “known probability of selection. ” Unless recruitment is multi-modal, most online panelists have large digital footprints. If you don’t go online often, your chances of being recruited are just less. But machine-generated data (or census as some call it) are challenged by their own biases. First, it is rarely census and it is well known that most underserved populations have a far fainter digital footprint and are less likely to appear in these big datasets.

In this project, the ARF in conjunction with Truthset will study if and how panels and big data can complement each other or if the limits of each create a multiplier of like biases. For both panels and big data, the method will include direct empirical measures of bias as well as surveys of the ecosystem to understand what companies are doing to address these biases.

Format & Schedule: The study will be delivered as a series of e-reports in Q2 of 2023. They will be accessible through a link on this page or by searching with PowerSearch. We will also hold an Insights Studio event to announce the results.

Navigating the Identity Resolution Landscape

The ARF’s Identity Resolution Working Group, within the Cross-Platform Measurement Council, has issued a report which includes interviews with executives from 20 identity resolution providers. The report sheds light on this crucial part of the advertising ecosystem.

The paper defines identity and why it is important, what it is used for and why it matters. It explains why resemblance is different from identity, describes several use cases and goes into detail on what privacy issues are associated with identity. It explains how different identities are connected, various approaches (deterministic vs. probabilistic), and ways to resolve conflict and engage interoperability. It even covers validity and ways to ensure accuracy in ID resolution.

Format and Schedule: The e-report is available.

The David Ogilvy Database

What is the relationship between brand and sales advertising? To find out, the ARF is creating a database to enable research on the subject. The annual project’s debut will include over 120 Ogilvy applicants.

The ARF has harmonized this effort with a similar project conducted by IPA in the UK. Each entry will include brand and product category, age, share, consideration, pricing position, growth, sales cycle, campaign objective, primary target, media plan, competitive strategy, outcomes, research used and brand equity.

Format & Schedule: The database has been compiled and is available now in a CSV format. Contact your Member Manager or email us at membership@thearf.org to access the data and for a codebook. Each spring, additional applications will be added to the database. It is currently available in a CSV format.