The advertising industry has experienced monumental change over the last few years. In order to offer members the crucial insights they need to stay ahead in these unparalleled times, the ARF conducts original research that tackles our industry’s most pressing questions. Look at our exciting agenda below.
WHAT BRANDS DID IN 2020 AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET SHARE
THE RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF MEDIA VS CREATIVE
THE ATTENTION VALIDATION PROJECT
PROJECTS SUPPORTING MRC STANDARDS
The Effect of Time of Duration and Attention on Advertising Effectiveness
The objective of this study was to discover the link between ad exposure and ad attention. When it comes to time duration, is a fifteen-second video ad twice as valuable as a seven-second one? The ARF’s neuro and biometric research found that the relationship between time of exposure and impact is curvilinear, typically flattening out between eight and 12 seconds.
Format & Schedule: The ARF covered the results in an online event with Meta and T-Vision in March 2022 entitled What is the Value of Time in Advertising? (Part I: How Value is Created). Part II covered the implications for the research industry. The content is being written up as a report to be published early in 2023.
2022 ARF Media Model
The first ARF media model was developed in the 1960s and updated again in 2002. The model’s purpose is to provide a conceptual framework from which to understand and teach how media and advertising work and to help marketers to develop better media campaigns.
A conceptual and graphical model updated in 2022 will be on our website this fall. As a graph, the model is a series of nodes and edges. In the next phase of the model, we will attempt to put coefficients on edges such as those between exposure and attention.
Format and Schedule:
The conceptual and graphical model is scheduled to be published in November 2022. The empirical model will be published in January 2023.
WHAT BRANDS DID IN 2020 AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKET SHARE
What Brands Did In 2020: Share of Search
Les Binet’s original telecast posited that the strength of share of search is a leading indicator of market share with a six-month lag. Is it true and does it hold up in today’s digital landscape? The ARF is evaluating search behavior from 2015 through 2022 and beyond, to see how the pandemic and supply chain dependencies may have impacted this relationship. Normally, the relationship varies by category with hard goods showing a stronger relationship than CPG. Did that change when major CPG brands were no longer available?
Format and Schedule: We expect to report and present each year starting early in 2023.
The Relative Contribution of Media vs. Creative
The Relative Contribution of Media vs. Creative
What is the contribution of media, ad creative and targeting when it comes to the success of an ad? A 2015 NCS study suggested it was 50% creative and 50% everything else, while a recent MMA survey among CMOs concluded there are three contributors: media, creative and brand. But CMOs tend to be brand focused. Another important question is the contribution of targeting and where it belongs in the framework.
The ARF is partnering with multiple research companies to understand the relative contribution of these four factors. There is also the ARF Media Model, which is a framework that helps us understand these factors better.
Format and Schedule: The project will be completed in early 2023. It will be published as a formal report and presented in a live venue.
The Attention Validation Project
The Attention Validation Project
ARF CEO and President Scott McDonald announced the launching of this project at the Attention 2022 event, with the goal of better understanding the different attention metric tools that exist, their validity, reproducibility and rightful application whether analyzing advertising creative or the media environment. This is important, as attention metrics are beginning to be moved from the lab to the marketplace. The study aims to parse out differing definitions of attention and emotion and their relationship to direct measures of neurometric response. It will also evaluate synthetic measures of attention, based on A.I. and machine learning approaches.
Format & Schedule: We are now recruiting an Advisory Committee composed of buy-side users of attention/emotion measurement solutions and independent experts in media measurement, cognitive psychology (i.e., attention), and machine learning/AI methodologies. This advisory group will provide input into the design and scope of the project and the questions to be posed to participating vendors.
The output will include a final report with best practice recommendations to the industry, proposed standards for adoption by auditing organizations such as the MRC, and key questions that buyers of these services should ask when evaluating prospective vendors. To learn more email Paul Donato, ARF CRO, at pdonato@thearf.org.
The ARF’s 5th Annual Privacy Study
The ARF’s 4th Annual Privacy Study
The Universe Study of Device and Account Sharing
Cross Platform Research
What Brands Did in 2020 – 2021
What are the Elements of a Successful Brand Purpose Campaign?
David Ogilvy Database
2020 Annual Privacy Survey
2019 Benchmark Survey
Brand Loyalty and Lifetime Value
The ARF Diversity Report
The US is more diverse and multiracial today than at any time in its history, according to the 2020 US Census. It is predicted to become even more so over time. As a result, many companies are beginning to increase their focus on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI). These efforts are occurring both inside of organizations and in their marketing efforts. This could be to their benefit. Studies have shown that a commitment to DEI can increase profitability, productivity, employee retention and consumer engagement.
A recent review of the current state of DEI in the market research industry, marketing industry and the general workplace, however, shows that many issues remain. To help member companies in their own DEI efforts, the ARF is releasing its Diversity Report. While there is certainly no “one-size-fits-all” approach, the report highlights best practices and offers actionable insights.
Format & Schedule: The report is now available for purchase on our website, with one hundred percent of the proceeds going to the ARF WIDE initiative. WIDE awards need-based scholarships to students of promise from diverse backgrounds, in order to increase diversity in the advertising and research industries while also helping these students achieve their goals.
The Future of Panels & Big Data
The future of media and marketing research will be some combination of panels and big data. Indeed, the WFA’s current cross-platform initiative calls for such a hybrid solution.
Panels once called “truth sets” have lost some credibility as online response rates discount any sense of “known probability of selection. ” Unless recruitment is multi-modal, most online panelists have large digital footprints. If you don’t go online often, your chances of being recruited are just less. But machine-generated data (or census as some call it) are challenged by their own biases. First, it is rarely census and it is well known that most underserved populations have a far fainter digital footprint and are less likely to appear in these big datasets.
In this project, the ARF in conjunction with Truthset will study if and how panels and big data can complement each other or do the limits of each create a multiplier of like biases? For both panels and big data, the method will include direct empirical measures of bias as well as surveys of the ecosystem to understand what companies are doing to address these biases.
Format & Schedule: The study will be delivered as a series of e-reports in Q1 of 2023. They will be accessible through a link on this page or by searching with PowerSearch. We will also hold an Insights Studio event to announce the results.
The Organizational Benchmark Survey
The Organizational Benchmark Survey was developed to examine the dramatic changes taking place in advertising and marketing research organizations in recent years. Developed by the ARF Analytics Council, last year’s survey produced a set of reports covering the advertiser, agency, research company, media & entertainment and consultancy sectors. The ARF also released access to the raw data for members to interrogate themselves via our interface. (Note, you must download the free Tableau reader before doing so. Find instructions on how to do so here).
These reports and the database have been helpful to members in understanding how their organization compares to others in their sector, with respect to the management of the insights and data analytics functions.
The first survey, conducted in mid-2019, found substantial differences between large and small companies and between companies in different sectors. It also revealed some salient trends in research departments.
The study covers what areas within research and analytics are growing and which ones are contracting. It looks at the technical skills that organizations look for in candidates when hiring for research and analytics departments, both now and in the future. It even asks respondents if they are satisfied with the research function in their companies.
This year, questions on privacy regulations, how COVID affected operations, predictions for 2021, and other areas of interest to the ARF community have been included.
Format & Schedule: The second Organizational Benchmark Survey has closed field and the research staff is developing reports comparing results to 2019. The first Advertiser e-report will be delivered in November of 2022 and the remaining e-reports will be issued about once per month. All e-reports will be available through this page on the ARF website and searchable through PowerSearch. However, all data (advertiser, agency, research and media) will be delivered to a Tableau database for interrogation and each study will be available as a CSV file for member re-analysis.
Cross-Platform Research
The ARF is conducting an empirical study to determine the relationship between the time someone is exposed to a video ad and its performance. This groundbreaking study uses a mix of recall, eyes-on, biometric and neuro techniques to evaluate video effectiveness. The laboratory tests will fundamentally test whether neuro and biometric response to a video ad is a function of linear or curvilinear time. It will include television, desktop, tablet and smartphone. In late 2021, the ARF extended this study to include exposure times to linear television and digital video and sales response based on loyalty card data to support its laboratory conclusions.
Format and Schedule: The neuro and biometric e-report will be available in January of 2023 through the ARF website. It will be searchable through PowerSearch. The raw data will be available as a CSV file for member re-analysis at the same time.
Navigating the Identity Resolution Landscape
The ARF’s Identity Resolution Working Group, within the Cross-Platform Measurement Council, has issued a report which includes interviews with executives from 20 identity resolution providers. The report sheds light on this crucial part of the advertising ecosystem.
The paper defines identity and why it is important, what it is used for and why it matters. It explains why resemblance is not the same as identity, describes several use-cases and goes into detail on what privacy issues are associated with identity. It explains how different identities are connected, various approaches (deterministic vs. probabilistic), and ways to resolve conflict and engage interoperability. It even covers validity and ways to ensure accuracy in ID resolution.
Format and Schedule: The e-report is available.
Brand Loyalty and Lifetime Value
Are US households loyal to brands like they were in the past? Or has the proliferation of marketing messages on websites, social media and other platforms affected such loyalty? To find out, the ARF Has evaluated IRI consumer panel data from 2010 thru 2019 and NC Solutions loyalty card data from 2015 thru 2020.
Format and Schedule: The results were first reported as part of our ShopperxScience event in March 2021 and are available as a video and PowerPoint at this time. We concluded that with the exception of a few categories, prior to March 2020, there was a tiny almost imperceptible decline among major brands, but that very small decline could fuel the perception of rapid growth among new and very small DTC brands.
The ARF Universe Study of Device and Account Sharing (DASH)
How many Americans share the username and password of a streaming service with a friend or family member? How many use someone else’s account from outside their household? On what types of devices do viewers use different apps? And how much co-viewing occurs on televisions compared to other devices? How many Amazon accounts does a four-person household typically have? The ARF’s Study of Device and Account Sharing investigates these and other such questions. This is a syndicated study intended to create standards and common references from which companies can develop weights, personification and other factors used by modelers.
Format and Schedule: This study began in 2021. It is run annually in the spring (May and June) and fall (September to October). The data from the first (spring) wave of 2022 was released to licensees in September. The results of the fall wave (September-October) along with the full-year 2022 results in January 2023. DASH 2023 and 2024 are on a similar timetable.
The study is licensed at three levels – (1) a basic subscription which will be delivered in a Tableau database, (2) a basic + subscription that provides anonymized person-level data and (3) premium which can be matched at a household level with your panel, CRM data or other first-party data set. Learn more here.
What Brands Did in 2020-2021
Research showed that during the 2008 recession, brands that went dark took three to five years to recover their market share. 2020 was a recessive year like no other. What did brands do and how will their 2020 marketing affect their market share in the years to come? This multi-year tracking project will compare pre-2020 baselines to 2020 advertising and subsequent share of market. We are also looking at brand equity scores and fundamentals across CPG, consumer electronics and other categories.
Format and Schedule: The study is a long-term tracking study and so will be released annually. We expect to put out the first e-report by the end of Q1 of 2023 and subsequently, in the years to come until the recovery from 2020 appears to be complete. The e-report will be available through a link on this page, through other relevant pages on our website and by searching through PowerSearch.
The 5th Annual Privacy Survey
One of our most anticipated studies both for membership and the press, our fifth annual report (see last year’s report here) contains the perennial questions regarding mobile and PC usage, willingness to share digital data, trust and how well privacy terms are understood. This year’s version also looked at changes in what information the public is willing to share and in what circumstances they are willing to share it. One significant finding was a six percent drop in the number of Americans concerned about online privacy, as compared to last year (48% to 42%).
Format and Schedule: The 5th Annual Privacy Survey is now available on our website and through PowerSearch. We issued the e-report in September 2022. Last year’s report and all others are available here. Contact your member ambassador should you desire access to the raw data for re-analysis.
The David Ogilvy Database
What is the relationship between brand and sales advertising? To find out, the ARF is creating a database to enable research on the subject. The annual project’s debut will include over 120 Ogilvy applicants.
The ARF has harmonized this effort with a similar project conducted by IPA in the UK. Each entry will include brand and product category, age, share, consideration, pricing position, growth, sales cycle, campaign objective, primary target, media plan, competitive strategy, outcomes, research used and brand equity.
Format & Schedule: The database has been compiled and is available now in a CSV format. Contact your Member Manager or email us at membership@thearf.org to access the data and for a codebook. Each spring, additional applications will be added to the database. It is currently available in a CSV format.