Learning Across Marketing Experiments: A Bayesian Approach to Improving Targeting

Summary

Companies run many marketing experiments, but most A/B tests are analyzed independently—limiting what firms can learn about how customers respond to interventions over time. This research introduces a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates data from many experiments simultaneously to estimate customer-level responsiveness to marketing. Using large-scale field experiments, the model decomposes treatment effects into customer, campaign and timing components and uses these insights to improve targeting decisions. The results show that most variation in marketing effectiveness comes from persistent differences in customer responsiveness, enabling firms to better identify who to target and when.