Audience & Media Measurement

Traversing Data Silos: A Practical Framework for Identity Crosswalks in Advertising

  • ARF | Cross-Platform Council
  • ARF ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Advertisers rely on identity crosswalks as a critical tool for linking identifiers across data sets and platforms without exposing personal information. This white paper from the Identity Resolution Working Group of the Cross-Platform Measurement Council provides a brief practical introduction to crosswalks and how to implement them effectively. It outlines common operational models, covers use cases for brands, agencies and publishers, and addresses accuracy, privacy and match rate considerations. The guide offers advertising researchers and data practitioners clear, actionable steps for navigating the complex identity landscape.

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Predicting What Moves the Needle: Marketing Mix Modeling After Cookies

  • ARF; MSI

As privacy regulations and the deprecation of third-party cookies limit access to individual-level consumer data, advertisers are increasingly forced to rely on aggregate metrics to evaluate marketing effectiveness. This MSI working paper introduces a novel, two-stage, marketing mix modeling framework designed specifically for cookie-free environments. By combining machine-learning–based directional prediction with classical econometric calibration, the approach demonstrates how firms can extract reliable signals about campaign effectiveness—even from short, noisy, aggregate time series—while maintaining interpretability and practical relevance for marketing decision-making.

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Why Don’t Advertisers Experiment More? The Economics Behind Incrementality Testing

  • ARF; MSI

Randomized experiments are widely viewed as the gold standard for measuring advertising incrementality, yet advertisers run them far less often than theory would predict. This MSI working paper develops a game-theoretic model of online advertising to explain why. By explicitly modeling the fixed and opportunity costs of experimentation—and the strategic role of ad platforms in setting reserve prices—the study shows how platforms may rationally discourage experimentation even when learning ad effectiveness could improve allocation efficiency. The findings offer a new economic explanation for persistently low experimentation rates in digital advertising markets.

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ATTENTION 2025

  • ARF

Industry leaders gathered at ATTENTION 2025 on June 5 to explore the evolving science of attention measurement in advertising. This event featured new research from advertisers, agencies, and academics, including preliminary findings from Phase 3 of the Attention Measurement Validation Initiative. Attendees gained actionable insights into scalable attention metrics, their role in optimizing creative and media strategies, and how brands can better identify and engage audiences to drive results.

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Privacy, Trust & AI: How U.S. Consumers Are Rewriting the Rules of Advertising

  • ARF Original Research

The ARF’s latest privacy study shows that U.S. consumers are more informed, more trusting and more engaged with artificial intelligence than ever before—yet still cautious about how it and other technologies use their data. Drawing on responses from more than 1,200 adults, the 2025 study reveals rising openness to data sharing when clear benefits exist, persistent skepticism toward certain targeting practices and growing expectations for transparency, especially around AI. For advertising researchers, the findings highlight a shifting privacy landscape where relevance, trust and first-party data strategies are increasingly intertwined.

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Why Synthetic Respondents Flatten Consumer Sentiment

  • ARF; MSI; CIMM
  • Psychology of GenAI

A new ARF Psych of GenAI experiment reveals that large language models apply a rigid, rule-driven logic when evaluating privacy scenarios—even when humans typically shift their reasoning based on framing, emotion and social context. Unlike consumers, who blend intuition, feeling and social perspective into their judgments, GPT-4o relied on a single internal rule across all testing conditions: data use is acceptable only with explicit consent. This consistency offers value for certain analytic tasks but exposes limits for advertising research that depends on emotional nuance and context-sensitive consumer insight.

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Analytics & Forecasting 2025

  • ARF
  • ARF

On September 29-30, the ARF and MSI co-produced the inaugural ANALYTICS & FORECASTING conference, exploring the evolving role of modeling in market research and forecasting, with a particular focus on the opportunities and limitations of synthetic data. Attendees engaged in critical discussions about the opportunities and limitations of modeling in market research applications and heard practical strategies and solutions from leading researchers and practitioners.

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