marketing experiments

Scaling Causal Measurement: A New Path Beyond Attribution

  • ARF; MSI

Randomized controlled trials remain the gold standard for measuring advertising effectiveness, but they are often too costly and complex to deploy across every campaign. This MSI Working Paper introduces Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE), a new framework that uses data from a limited set of experiments to predict causal advertising effects for campaigns that are not directly tested. The research demonstrates that PIE can dramatically outperform traditional attribution metrics, offering marketers a practical way to scale causal measurement without scaling experimentation itself.

Member Only Access
  • Article

Recording: MSI Webinar: Optimizing Ad Content Strategy: When to Repeat and When to Rotate

  • Array

Content repetition is a foundational principle in advertising, yet marketers frequently face the decision of whether to reinforce a single message or rotate multiple creative variations.  

In this webinar, we present causal evidence from a large-scale field experiment examining when repetition strengthens performance and when content variation delivers greater impact. Join us to gain actionable insights on how to optimize ad content decisions to improve engagement, conversion, and overall marketing effectiveness. 

  • Article

Presentation: MSI Webinar: Optimizing Ad Content Strategy: When to Repeat and When to Rotate

  • Array

Content repetition is a foundational principle in advertising, yet marketers frequently face the decision of whether to reinforce a single message or rotate multiple creative variations.  

In this webinar, we present causal evidence from a large-scale field experiment examining when repetition strengthens performance and when content variation delivers greater impact. Join us to gain actionable insights on how to optimize ad content decisions to improve engagement, conversion, and overall marketing effectiveness. 

  • Article

Presentation: MSI Webinar: Meta Ad Testing Demystified: Divergent Delivery and What It Means for Your Results

  • Array

Meta’s Lift and A/B tests are widely used to evaluate campaign performance, but they answer fundamentally different questions. Lift tests estimate true incrementality using a no-ad control, while A/B tests compare campaign variants without a control group. 

A key challenge in A/B testing is “divergent delivery,” where Meta’s algorithms distribute each variant to different audience segments. This means observed performance differences may reflect both creative effectiveness and who saw the ads. 

Drawing on large-scale evidence from thousands of Lift and A/B tests, this webinar shows when and why divergent delivery occurs, why it can be both informative and misleading, and how it compares to Lift test results. You’ll also learn practical ways to reduce imbalance—through campaign setup choices like targeting, budgets, bidding, and placements—to better isolate creative impact when that’s the goal. 

Commerce and Shopper Intelligence

Retail media networks and commerce media are redefining the data and measurement landscape, creating new opportunities—and complexity—for marketers and researchers alike. At Commerce & Shopper Intelligence 2026, brands, retailers, and researchers revealed how they’re adapting methodologies and frameworks to better understand increasingly fluid, data-rich shopping journeys.

Member Only Access
  • Article

PIE (Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation) Takes the Cake on Ad Measurement

  • Array

Random controlled trials (RCTs) can assess causal effects of marketing but are expensive and incur opportunity costs by excluding control groups. Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE) uses samples of RCT-run campaigns to determine which characteristics map to causal outcomes and then applies that mapping to campaigns not run as RCTs.