“Uncertainty isn’t just a risk—it’s a signal to adapt. Brands that lead with empathy and agility will emerge not only trusted, but stronger.”
Brands today face volatility on every front—economic, cultural, geopolitical—and yet consumers continue to seek reassurance, value and connection. To help members navigate these unusual times, ARF and MSI present a unified front to help marketers decode uncertainty and activate research-driven strategies for long-term impact.
ARF’s “Consumer Behavior in Times of Uncertainty”
Based on rigorous industry research, historical analysis and behavioral science, this ARF report offers an in-depth examination of how consumers respond during times of volatility. Drawing from sources including Ipsos, Kantar, Edelman and academic insights on psychology and decision-making, it provides a comprehensive playbook for marketing leaders. Key themes and insights include:
- Emotional anchoring and trust-building:
Consumers seek empathy, stability and emotional support during uncertain times. Brands must cultivate warmth, authenticity and purpose—not just product features. - Value-seeking behavior and adaptive pricing:
A crisis does not eliminate spending—it reshapes it. The report explores how consumers reprioritize toward core needs and “little luxuries,” and offers guidance on tiered offerings and flexible pricing that maintain brand equity. - Brand loyalty under stress:
Research shows that consumers gravitate toward brands they trust. Strategies like consistent communication, purpose-led messaging and behavioral segmentation are shown to protect and grow loyalty. - Advertising tone and messaging frameworks:
Examples of crisis-era campaigns (e.g., Guinness, DoorDash, Prudential) illustrate how creative tone—empathetic, grounded and sometimes lighthearted—can enhance relevance and build connection. - Tactical agility for marketers:
Leveraging work by Les Binet and others, the report outlines smart tactical moves—from reallocating ad spend to maintaining share of voice—that position brands for post-crisis growth. - Generational and regional nuance:
Customizable strategies reflect how Gen Z vs. Boomers, or collectivist vs. individualist societies, react to uncertainty differently—and what marketers should do in response.
This 30+ page report is designed as a strategic briefing for CMOs, brand managers and researchers seeking to navigate disruption with insight and impact.
MSI’s “Marketing in Uncertainty” Playbook
This evidence-based playbook from the Marketing Science Institute distills cutting-edge academic research into actionable strategy. It draws on peer-reviewed literature from Journal of Marketing, Marketing Science and Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. The preview outlines four key imperatives, each backed by empirical findings:
- What Not to Do
- Avoid indiscriminate budget cuts that damage long-term brand equity.
- Refrain from blanket discounts that commoditize your brand and weaken trust.
- Don’t rely solely on transactional loyalty tactics that erode authentic relationships.
- What to Do Now
- Take immediate steps to stabilize customer relationships and protect key brand assets.
- Maintain strategic visibility and engagement even during downturns.
- Adapt messaging and positioning based on shifts in customer behavior.
- What Metrics and Models to Build
- Evolve your measurement strategies: track marketing’s contribution to resilience, customer retention and firm value.
- Build predictive models to inform pricing, campaign ROI and market response under volatile conditions.
- What to Build for the Future
- Invest in capabilities that link marketing to organizational agility and risk management.
- Position marketing as a strategic partner across the enterprise—not just a comms function, but a driver of long-term value creation.
The playbook makes the case for treating marketing as a “system of resilience,” not a discretionary spend. It’s a must-read for marketing strategists, analytics teams and executive leadership preparing for an era where uncertainty is the norm, not the exception.
Together, these resources provide the full picture: how consumers behave, what they expect, and what firms must do now and in the future to thrive. This collaboration empowers brand stewards with the insight and foresight needed to guide their organizations confidently through complexity.
Read the reports:
ARF:
Consumer Behavior in Times of Uncertainty ( Full Report ) (ARF Member Only – Log-in required)
Consumer Behavior in Times of Uncertainty: Insights for Brand Strategy (Abridged Knowledge at Hand) (ARF Member Only – Log-in required)
MSI:
The Marketing Uncertainty Playbook: What to Avoid, What to Do Now, and What to Build for the Future (MSI Member Only – Log-in Required)
The Marketing Uncertainty Whitepaper: What to Avoid, What to Do Now, and What to Build for the Future (Presentation)(MSI Member Only – Log-in Required)
Interested in learning more about MSI? Visit their membership page for more information.