effectiveness & ROI

An Economic Analysis of TV Advertising Profitability

Professor Anna Tuchman of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management presented an economic analysis of the effectiveness of a major portion of the U.S. linear television advertising spend, worth $66B in 2019. The study, conducted with Bradley Shapiro and Günter Hitsch of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, investigated the elasticity of actual sales for 288 distinct CPG brands on the basis of brand-specific ad spend as captured by Nielsen store and household panels along with Nielsen Ad Intel data. They used log-log regression and flexible machine learning algorithms. Their goal is to help firms evaluate ad campaign effectiveness with the hope their measurement will help make better ad spend decisions.


An impressive body of work is building in attention measurement. The three winning-papers sessions preceding this panel revealed a work in progress with shared goals as well as differences in approaches. Moderator Earl Taylor of the ARF’s MSI division asked the speakers about their views on barriers to the process, and opportunities for further improving attention measures.

Attentive Reach: The Case for Human Attention in Brand Advertising

Realeyes uses software solutions for measuring human attentional and emotional response to advertising. Max Kalehoff explained the importance of attention measurement as a gauge of brand performance. He urged companies, particularly those with latent sales, to incorporate it into their business models.

Cookieless Audience Targeting and Attribution: A Pharma Case Study

While attribution has been around two decades, a great breakthrough for digital, the deprecation of third party cookies is likely to have a significant impact. Options to MTA include: walled gardens, focused on one channel only, and data clean rooms such as those operated by the identity companies. Cleanrooms are data intensive but much better than single channel walled gardens.

Understanding the True Cost of Attention Across Media

Lumen Research and TVision came together with Ebiquity to study differences in the way advertising generates visual attention across varied media and how much it costs to buy that attention. By combining their individual datasets – Lumen’s visual attention to digital advertising on desktop and smartphones, TVision’s TV attention data, and Ebiquity’s cost data – the researchers devised a new currency, the aCPM, a proxy metric representing the cost per thousand seconds of attention.


In this discussion for the track, Attribution & Approaches, session chair, Paul Donato (ARF) asked the speakers for their key insights on the drivers of short-term and long-term sales, the role of match control, and whether testing control should be part of attribution and ROI.

A New Metric for Brand Loyalty

There have been dramatic changes in loyalty due to the pandemic, requiring a re-examination of the measures of loyalty, churn, and the value of new vs. loyal buyers. NCSolutions analyzed why it is important to compare loyalty measures longitudinally to gauge a brand’s health, as well as to understand which advertising and promotional strategies have been successful and to determine whether to focus on driving penetration or brand loyalty.

Fast(er) Causal Attribution

The presenters analyzed the past attribution challenges for Chipotle and proposed new measurement solutions. Chipotle wanted proof that its TV commercials drove sales. Chipotle and WarnerMedia developed an outcome-guaranteed deal based on sales lift, rather than impressions. For Chipotle, incremental transactions are most important. These transactions were also measured for the competitors. The goal was to provide purposeful, visible, and accountable results.

Assessing the Potential of Addressable Linear TV Advertising

Traditional linear TV places the same ads in the same shows (“program targeting”). Addressable TV can place different ads in the same show, allowing “audience-based” targeting at the household (HH) level. To determine the incremental lift achieved by audience-based targeting, we need to measure outcomes at the individual (HH) level. This allows us to run what/if scenarios with the models to determine optimal targeting. The researchers analyzed second-by-second viewing data from a panel with 750,000 HHs, tracking exposure to focal and competitor ads. The fact that advertisers tend to mainly target consumers already likely to buy creates potential endogeneity. The analyses controlled for this and three other factors: heterogeneity in ad avoidance; activity bias; and seasonality and other trends. During the observed 15-month period, there was a 4.1% conversion for those HHs in the market for the focal offer.

Consumer Behavioral Shifts: Why Your Marketing Measurement Must Adapt in 2022 and Beyond

Consumer behaviors have changed dramatically creating new challenges for brands and their marketing measurement. During this Insights Studio, we explored the measurement challenges brands have faced in the wake of significant consumer changes. We also discussed best practices brands should be using to ensure their marketing measurement is set up for future success as consumers continue to react to major societal change. Executives from OptiMine, an agile marketing analytics provider, Kepler, a global digital agency, and Beachbody, an innovative health and fitness company, shared their observations on how changes in consumer shopping and media consumption behaviors have been reflected in marketing measurement.