Future States

• Research & Data Quality
• Article

Can Observational Methods Assess the Causal Effect of Ads?

• MSI

While Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are ideal for advertising measurement, it is not always feasible to conduct one. Until advertising platforms are willing to provide more information about how they deliver targeted ads or implement auctions, alternative observational methods are unlikely to reliably estimate causal effects. That includes utilizing newer machine learning techniques.

• Analytics & Data Science
• Article

Optimizing Interventions Along the Customer Journey

• MSI

Random controlled experiments for A/B testing help improve things like a company's marketing or customer service. However, individually optimizing interventions may not always capture interactions across the entire purchase decision journey. To optimize interventions more holistically, use a Bayesian reinforcement learning model. It can integrate multiple historical experiments, which can improve both current impact as well as future learning.

• Audience & Media Measurement
• Article

The ARF Attention Report

• ARF & THE ATTENTION COUNCIL

The ARF partnered with the UK’s Attention Council on this project, whose aim was to gauge the level of interest in attention metrics among ARF members and the Wonks community. Sixty-three participants took the survey in January of this year (2022). The qualitative study focuses on variations among the industry’s sectors in their outlook on attention metrics. The differences in outlook between researchers and the buy-side were particularly interesting.

• Research & Data Quality
• Article

Does the Hierarchy of Ad Effects Still Work?

• MSI

Advertising can trigger cognition, affect or experience, according to the influential Hierarchy of Effects (HoE) model. The following study valides the basic integrated HoE model. However, it also finds that operating sequence varies across brands. The predominant one is affect → cognition → experience (ACE).

• Research & Data Quality
• Article

ARF Academic Journal Highlighted for Industry Authors, Expansive Themes

• JOURNAL OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH

In December 2020, the Journal of Advertising Research published an independent seminal bibliographic study that identified key publishing trends since the academic journal’s inception in 1960. Now, a more granular overview expands on those findings to reveal the prominence of practitioner authors amid a wide range of themes, while encouraging future submissions.

• Analytics & Data Science
• Article

Improving Product Sales Predictions Is Brain Science

• MSI

It’s no surprise that new product launches often fail to meet their targets. The trick for managers is to improve their predictions for such products. They must balance the costs and benefits of many different data sources and analytic techniques in order to improve forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the market-level sales of new products, researchers Marton Varga, Anita Tusche, Paulo Albuquerque, Nadine Gier, Bernd Weber, and Hilke Plassmann, analyzed the added value of different data types. Their conclusions are illuminating.

• Article

JAR: Moment-to-Moment EEG Metrics Enhance Ad Effectiveness Analysis

A European research team is on a mission to advance the development and use of electroencephalogram (EEG)-based methods for evaluating advertising effectiveness. Although their research leaves open questions, it suggests that recent developments in this area—specifically moment-to-moment EEG-based indicators—provide a clearer view into emotional response and attention to ads than previous EEG methods. Read the article.

• Creative & Branded Content
• Article

Shoppers Like Explicit Donation Links in Cause-Related Marketing Ads

• JOURNAL OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH

Companies increasingly target nonprofit web and social media followers by using cause-related marketing display ads on the websites of charity or nonprofit organizations. Two key formats are used: either transactional (representing an explicit donation amount that a consumer can make to the nonprofit) or nontransactional (representing online cause sponsorship). Which one is more successful? A new study has some answers.

• Research & Data Quality
• Article

Understanding Biases in Panel and Census Research Using AI/ML

• ARF

There are a number of different biases that can impact panel and census research and big data sets which utilize artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML). The attached Knowledge at Hand identifies over two dozen unique biases. It discusses how they might occur and what mitigation options researchers should consider to account for them.

• Research & Data Quality
• Article

The ARF Universe Study of Device & Account Sharing: The How and Why

• The ARF

In the digital age, it is difficult to measure media usage on the individual level. Users may share multiple devices and have several profiles across and even within service categories. People share usernames and passwords with others to allow them access to their streaming media or e-commerce accounts. As a result, providers of digital services and research lack a consistent, reliable and efficient way to parse out the digital world at the user level. Now, a new study by the ARF provides a solution.