The advertising industry has experienced monumental change over the last few years. To offer members the crucial insights they need to stay ahead in these unparalleled times, the ARF conducts original research that tackles our industry’s most pressing questions. Look at our exciting agenda below.
THE PRIVACY STUDY | MEDIA VS CREATIVE | WHAT IS PREMIUM? | AI & ADVERTISING RESEARCH | ARF MEDIA MODEL | ATTENTION MEASUREMENT VALIDATION | TIME DURATION AND AD EFFECTIVENESS | DAVID OGILVY AWARDS DATABASE | BENCHMARK SURVEY | WHAT BRANDS DID IN 2020
ATTENTION & METRICS | BIG DATA CALIBRATION | SURVEY QUALITY | SONIC BRANDING | ADVERTISING AND PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES |
The 6th Annual Privacy Survey
One of the ARF’s most anticipated studies, both for membership and the press, the seventh annual study contains the perennial questions regarding mobile and PC usage, willingness to share digital data, trust in institutions and how well privacy terms are understood. The 2022 and 2023 versions added questions on what changes in information the public is willing to share and under what circumstances they are willing to share such information. One new aspect of the 2023 report was it contained longitudinal findings across all recent years.
The full 2o23 report was released in January. It is available on our website and through PowerSearch.
Format and Schedule: The seventh annual study will be released in Q4 of 2024.
The Relative Contribution of Media vs. Creative vs. Targeting
What is the contribution of media, ad creative and targeting when it comes to the success of an ad? A 2015 NCS study suggested it was 50% creative and 50% everything else, while a recent MMA survey among CMOs concluded there are three equal contributors: media, creative and brand. However, CMOs tend to be brand-focused. Another important question is the contribution of targeting and where it belongs in the framework. The ARF has partnered with MediaScience to conduct an experiment that will look at the relative contribution of these four factors while controlling for things such as brand size.
Format and Schedule: A formal report will be released in November 2024.
What Is Premium?
The test of the impact of media vs. creative will be extended to cover the differences in impact between professionally developed content and user-generated content (UGC). The study will include familiar and unfamiliar brands, targeted and untargeted brands and large and small brands. Tested media include audio, linear TV, digital display, digital video, social media and outdoor. The results of these tests will be published later this year on the ARF website.
Format and Schedule: The project began late last summer, with results to be published by November 2024.
Artificial Intelligence and Advertising Research
Significant developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technology have occurred in the last couple of years. AI is now being used in the industry to help produce advertising, analyze advertising placements, improve SEO, optimize CRM copy to avoid spam filters, or ensure ad copy complies with effectiveness frameworks.
The ARF, being uniquely positioned to opine on the uses (and misuses) of AI in advertising research, has experimented with ChatGPT 4.0, Bard and Microsoft’s Azure, putting them through their paces on all things advertising research. The result of this effort is a first-of-its-kind handbook containing all of the findings. We also offer two abridged versions, a brief Knowledge at Hand report and a one-page CMO Brief.
Format and Schedule: ARF researchers used top AI programs to evaluate their capabilities in report writing, survey writing and design, synthetic research and fraud detection. The final handbook was posted to our website in January 2024 and is available there and through PowerSearch.
An Empirical ARF Media Model
The ARF’s first “Media Model” was produced in 1961 in a report called, “Toward Better Media Decisions.” Due to the complexity that occurred in the industry between that time and the new millennium, the model was updated in 2003. Yet again, in 2023, a new version is required and is being supplied by the ARF. The 2023 Media Model has been altered significantly. For instance, rather than eight levels of media performance, this version has seven, as sales and advertising responses have been combined.
The 2023 model is also three-dimensional, including time, space and platform, rather than just two-dimensional, as previous versions were. Also, the new model accounts for recursive and amplifying effects, such as shares and likes, and the impact of ad stock.
Format and Schedule: The model’s visualization differs by platform. Currently, ARF researchers are adding formulas at vertices in each section of each version of the model, for granular exactitude and greater usability for the practitioner. A report uncovering each version of the 2023 Media Model will be available in Q4 of 2024.
The Attention Measurement Validation Initiative
ARF CEO and President Scott McDonald announced the launch of this project at the Attention 2022 event to understand better the different attention metric tools that exist, their validity, reproducibility and rightful application, whether analyzing advertising creative or the media environment. This is important, as attention metrics have moved from the lab to the marketplace. The study aims to parse out differing definitions of attention and emotion and their relationship to direct measures of neurometric response. It will also evaluate synthetic measures of attention, based on AI and machine learning approaches.
Format & Schedule: The first step was forming a Brand Steering Committee. It consists of senior researchers at Coca-Cola, LinkedIn/Microsoft, MARS and McDonald’s, among others. The next step was mapping the attention measurement market. The results of this effort were presented at the Attention 2023 event held on June 7. This first phase included surveying companies in the attention measurement space, which was followed up with one-to-one interviews. A detailed literature review was also conducted. The ARF released its initial findings in the Phase 1 report released in October. An update to the Phase One Report was released in April.
The results of the Phase Two Report, which is a comparison of the different creative testing methodologies, were revealed at the Attention 2024 event. Phase Three will focus on attention to different media platforms. We expect Phase Three to be completed in the winter of 2024. The final product will include best practice recommendations, proposed standards for adoption by auditing organizations such as the MRC, and key questions that buyers of these services should ask when evaluating prospective vendors.
To learn more, email ARF CRO Paul Donato at: pdonato@thearf.org.
Or read the article, The ARF Attention Measurement Validation Initiative: The How & Why.
The Effect of Time of Duration and Attention on Advertising Effectiveness
The objective of this study was to discover the link between ad exposure and ad attention. When it comes to time duration, is a fifteen-second video ad twice as valuable as a seven-second one? The ARF’s neuro and biometric research discovered that the relationship between time of exposure and impact is curvilinear, typically flattening out between eight and 12 seconds.
Format & Schedule: The ARF covered the results in two events. The first was an online event with Meta and T-Vision in March 2022, entitled: “What is the Value of Time in Advertising?” (Part I: How Value is Created). Part II covered the implications for the research industry.
The David Ogilvy Database
What is the relationship between brand and sales advertising? To find out, the ARF is creating a database to enable research on the subject. The annual project’s debut will include over 120 Ogilvy applicants.
The ARF has harmonized this effort with a similar project conducted by IPA in the UK. Each entry will include the brand and product category, age, share, consideration, pricing position, growth, sales cycle, campaign objective, primary target, media plan, competitive strategy, outcomes, research used and brand equity.
Format & Schedule: The database has been compiled and is available now as a CSV file. Contact your member manager or email us at membership@thearf.org to access the data and for a codebook. Each spring, additional applications will be added to the database.
The State of the Research and Analytics Disciplines (Organizational Benchmark Survey)
This project’s aim is to understand the state of advertising research and analytics departments and how they change over time. In 2019, when the project began, research departments were overwhelmed with big data and unique questions started cropping up. Using a Qualtrics platform, the Organizational Benchmark Survey sought to understand these vast changes, including what these departments were calling themselves, how they were being structured, where investment was being allocated, how staffing was being undertaken, what kinds of collaboration was being made and how the research was being evaluated.
Format & Schedule: The first survey was conducted in 2019 on a Qualtrics platform and produced five separate reports: Advertiser, Agency, Media & Entertainment, Consultancy and Research Company. The 2nd survey was conducted 2020-2021. This is a unique report, as the timing of the data overlaps with the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2024 Benchmark Survey launched in June 2024. The results are expected to be released in Q4 of 2024.
What Brands Did In 2020
Les Binet’s original telecast posited that the strength of share of search is a leading indicator of market share with a six-month lag. Is it true and does it hold up in today’s digital landscape? The ARF is evaluating search behavior from 2015 through 2022 and beyond, to see how the pandemic and supply chain dependencies may have impacted this relationship. Normally, the relationship varies by category with hard goods showing a stronger relationship than CPG. Did that change when major CPG brands were no longer available?
Format and Schedule: The event was held in January 2023. The video and presentation deck are available on our website. The full report can also be retrieved here and through PowerSearch.
2024 Research Program
The ARF Attention and Metrics Survey
The ARF will conduct a survey of its advertiser and agency members to determine their knowledge about and usage of attention metrics. The survey will also ask what metrics the buying community is using across different media platforms.
Format and Schedule:
The survey will be conducted through Qualtrics and will be disseminated among advertiser and agency members in Q4 of 2024.
Big Data Calibration
There is currently much debate regarding the need for panels to calibrate big data sets. Is a high-quality probability panel needed for all types of calibration or are some online convenience panels sufficient for some adjustments? The study will first survey measurement companies regarding what adjustments and panels they are using, and then study the impact of different panels on those adjustments.
Format and Schedule:
The report is expected to be made available on the ARF website and through PowerSearch in Q4 of 2024.
Online Survey Quality
The ARF is working with eye-tracking company RealEyes to explore the effectiveness of using facial recognition as a means of identifying duplicate survey responses from the same individual using different emails.
Format and Schedule:
The report is expected to be released on the ARF website and through PowerSearch in Q4 of 2024.
Sonic Branding
This study will evaluate the impact of using sonic elements beyond music in creative effectiveness.
Format and Schedule:
The report is expected to be released on the ARF website and through PowerSearch in Q4 of 2024.
Advertising and People with Disabilities
Several questions will be added to the 2024 Organizational Benchmark study that measures the advertising research community’s awareness of and adherence to federal guidelines derived from the Americans with Disabilities Act. This separate study will measure how often internal and external clients request information on using techniques, such as text-to-voice, in online surveys to represent the visually impaired.
Format and Schedule:
The report is expected to be released on the ARF website and through PowerSearch in Q4 of 2024.