On June 7, 2023, attention economy experts came together in NYC to share case studies and participate in engaging discussions on the attention measurement landscape. Plus, attendees heard a recap of the issues debated at AUDIENCExSCIENCE and an update on Phase I of the ARF Attention Validation Initiative, an empirically based evaluation of the rapidly developing market for attention measurement and prediction.
This ARF Pharma Council event followed up on the Council’s podcast episode on “Inclusive Futures of Humancare,” focusing on the importance of inclusiveness in pharma research and marketing with respect to both demographic characteristics and health conditions. Four speakers delivered brief presentations, followed by a discussion moderated by Pharma Council Co-Chair Marjorie Reedy of Merck.
Inaccurate responses to basic demographic and media consumption questions asked in surveys are very problematic, since these responses form the bedrock data points for all demographic research and media consumption measurement.
Jon Puleston analyzed some of the reasons why respondents are not truthful in surveys and the challenges raised. As a result of inaccurate respondent responses, the industry has been mis-measuring basic demographics and media consumption for decades.
This discussion addressed three presentations that described insights from surveys on how the pandemic affected consumer behavior during the pandemic and to what extent observed changes will persist. The presentations addressed trends in behaviors and attitudes regarding media (such as linear TV vs. streaming), travel, and also shopping, cooking, and education.
In a 2019 Pew survey, 79% of Americans say that they know big companies track their online behavior while 59% say they don’t know how the data is used and have little control over how the data is used. In a 2020 survey, Pew found that most Americans want the right to permanently delete their health related data.
Rex Briggs, Founder & Executive Chairman of Marketing Evolution, who had developed forecasts of US COVID infections and deaths early in 2020, before it had been declared a pandemic, talked about the difficulties in “exponential forecasting” of events like a pandemic, compared to “stable state” forecasting of the impact of media, marketing, and creative. Just as companies might not have anticipated the impact of COVID-19 as it spread, they may be caught “flat-footed” in forecasting the exponential decay of the disease as vaccinations spread in 2021. Business forecasts of the impact of COVID in 2021 should take into account vaccination rates by age and surveys on acceptance of the vaccine.
David Dutwin, SVP of Strategic Initiatives at NORC, and a past president of AAPOR and survey research expert, in an interview with ARF CEO & President Scott McDonald, Ph.D., encouraged the advertising and marketing industry to maintain their faith in survey research. Surveys for marketing and advertising do not have to contend with two problems with election forecasting based on polls:
Cliff Young, President of US Public Affairs at Ipsos, proposed that multiple indicators be used to forecast elections, not just data from the horse-race question alone. In particular, leaders’ approval ratings are strong predictors of their probabilities of winning, and Trump’s approval rating exceeded his horse-race preference in several swing states. Taking this variable and others (incumbency, perceptions of the most important problems facing the country) into account, Ipsos created a model based on results of over 800 elections across the globe. The model had predicted that a narrow Biden win with Republicans retaining control of the Senate was more likely than a Blue Wave.
Kathy Frankovic, a polling export who led the survey unit at CBS News for over 30 years and now consults for YouGov, highlighted two plausible hypotheses for the polling industry’s over-estimation of Democratic strength in the election:
This ARF Pharma Council event followed up on the Council’s podcast episode on “Inclusive Futures of Humancare,” focusing on the importance of inclusiveness in pharma research and marketing with respect to both demographic characteristics and health conditions. Four speakers delivered brief presentations, followed by a discussion moderated by Pharma Council Co-Chair Marjorie Reedy of Merck.