predictive analytics

2023 Attribution & Analytics Accelerator

The Attribution & Analytics Accelerator returned for its eighth year as the only event focused exclusively on attribution, marketing mix models, in-market testing and the science of marketing performance measurement. The boldest and brightest minds took the stage to share their latest innovations and case studies. Modelers, marketers, researchers and data scientists gathered in NYC to quicken the pace of innovation, fortify the science and galvanize the industry toward best practices and improved solutions. Content is available to event attendees and ARF members.

Member Only Access

A Peek Behind the Curtain at How AI Judged the David Ogilvy Awards

  • Summary by Alexander Cammy, Creative Council Young Pros Officer

During this ARF Creative Council event, the Council further explored the results of the AI model experiment to predict the winners of the 2023 ARF David Ogilvy awards, building on the initial presentation of these results at the Creative Effectiveness Event.  Council Member Pedr Howard (Ipsos) presented additional results now that the actual winners are known.  Lynnete Wong (Oglivy) of the 2023 Grand Ogilvy Award winning team talked about the kinds of research her agency undertook to develop the winning campaign for Samsung.  The two of them then joined a panel with Council member Belle Frank (VMLY&R) to discuss the implications of the experiment and the growing role of AI in advertising and advertising research.  Council Member Bill Day (Magid) moderated the panel.

Member Only Access

How Do You Stimulate Great Creative and Measure It?

  • CREATIVE EFFECTIVENESS 2023

At our second annual Creative Effectiveness event, industry visionaries discussed the perspectives, theories, and resources they employ to develop and measure great creative. Attendees joined us in New York City or via livestream to hear fresh insights on the advertising landscape: from using AI as a stimulus for creative to extracting behavioral data and using that to try and inspire creative. Immediately after, we honored the teams behind insights-driven advertising with the ARF David Ogilvy Awards ceremony and dinner. The Gold, Silver and Bronze winners were announced, as well as the reveal of this year’s prestigious Grand Ogilvy Award recipient.

Member Only Access

FORECASTING 2023: Managing Risk — How Businesses Can Get Better Visibility into the Near and Long-Term Future

Managing business risk involves having a rational, data-driven view of the future while simultaneously being as prepared as possible for external shocks — from a global pandemic and the ensuing supply-chain disruptions, to inflation, data signal losses, war, and great power competition. At our annual Forecasting event, held virtually on July 18, leading experts shared how businesses can adapt forecasting techniques to manage risk.

How Businesses Can Get Better Visibility into the Near and Long-Term Future

  • FORECASTING 2023

Managing business risk involves having a rational, data-driven view of the future while simultaneously being as prepared as possible for external shocks — from a global pandemic and the ensuing supply-chain disruptions, to inflation, data signal losses, war, and great power competition. At our annual Forecasting event, held virtually on July 18, leading experts shared how businesses can adapt forecasting techniques to manage risk.

Member Only Access

Forecasting Outcomes for Optimized Impact in a Time of Uncertainty

Mark Wilson, Associate VP at Analytic Partners, advocated the value of scenario planning for businesses. Scenario planning is particularly helpful for new product launches, forecasting the impact of price increases, and budget planning.  The keys to their success are that they be data-driven, collaborative across functional teams, ongoing, and iterative, with continuous updating of inputs.  A successful scenario planning framework defines success criteria, identifies performance drivers — both controllable and non-controllable — and incorporates critical business dynamics.  Marketing drives 15% to 30% of sales, more for some businesses, and companies that adopt data-driven simulations can drive much more growth than companies that do not.

Improving Viewership Projections: Forecasting for Data-Driven Audience Segments

Diana Saafi, Data Science Lead at Discovery, built on Cliff Young’s comments about the importance of multiple indicators for forecasting. Saafi forecasts linear television audiences in segments of interest to advertisers (beyond age-sex segments), rather than political outcomes. She and her team have found that their models have benefited from using multiple sources of data.  She recommended identifying signals that are most predictive, experimenting with different types of models (such as ARIMA models and AI models), continually refreshing the data in the models, and continually updating the models. While this process is now automated at Discovery, there are people who monitor changes in the predictions, which she referred to as “human-in-the-loop automation.”