Holistic Cross-Media Measurement

Brendan Kroll – VP Performance Measurement, Nielsen

Anne Ori – Measurement Lead, CG&E, Google

Daniel Sacks – Incrementality Lead, US Agency, Google

Brendan Kroll of Nielsen and Anne Ori and Daniel Sacks, both of Google, explained that their study’s objective was to identify potential improvements to marketing mix models by utilizing enhanced prior beliefs (priors) based on sales lift studies and exploring the resulting changes in campaign-level sales lift once those priors were incorporated. Incrementality experiments are widely accepted as the gold standard for causal measurement. Calibrating individual channels via experimentation ensures optimization of model outcomes. However, the results of incrementality experiments are often not part of marketing mix model (MMM) design. Nielsen utilized NCS sales lift studies as the source of the experimental data for this analysis. NCS determined the causal effects of advertising on incremental sales while controlling for targeting and other co-variates. The study design involved 10 brands with existing MMMs and available NCS results for corresponding periods, model re-estimation using NCS lift priors, refinement of the priors and scaling. This study showed that applying this methodology to a YouTube campaign resulted in significant sales lift, as well as revenue and ROAS increases, including a 2.6x median increase in the effectiveness in the adjusted model. The adjusted model showed greater marketing contribution overall; therefore, marketers are at risk of undervaluing their overall marketing if experimental results are not included.

Key Takeaways

  • Brands can effectively leverage experiment-based priors to strengthen marketing mix models.
  • For nascent channels, the inclusion of experimentation results proved fundamental, especially if those campaigns showed strong initial results, since MMMs cannot rely solely on historical anchoring to measure true impact.
  • When experiments reveal high performing channels or campaigns, the use of testing can aid more accurate MMM measurements as investment scales.
  • Even for channels with long histories and relative stability, experimentation can serve as a way to validate models and may give models a chance to remain flexible in case of strategic shifts and/or changes in consumer behavior.

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Tune In, Outside the Box

JP PereiraSVP, Marketing Science, VideoAmp

Brian WestSVP, Data and Measurement Strategy, NBCU TV & Streaming

Many viewers of programs on “traditional” networks like NBC are now watching those programs on digital platforms. To promote programs and increase tune-in, providers must reach viewers where they watch—that means: on all platforms. This presentation described the research conducted to explore the effectiveness of NBCU’s content marketing in launching and sustaining shows in today’s complex, fragmented viewing environment. NBCU partnered with VideoAmp to obtain the cross-channel metrics needed to achieve optimal strategies regarding the linear-digital mix of content promotions as well as their frequency, length and creative executions. After years of development, the goal of measuring tune-in on linear, digital and walled garden platforms has now been reached.

Key Takeaways

  • As most viewers watch on several platforms, providers need a complete view of all platforms to optimize content promotion. Obtaining accurate measures of viewers’ use of all platforms, however, is not an easy task and requires measurement innovation.
  • NBCU partnered with VideoAmp to converge linear TV, digital and offline datasets through commingled identity graph to provide a view of the consumer across platforms. This approach allows NBCU to measure performance of all promotion tactics and determine which best drive conversions.
  • The analysis of these data is helping NBCU to improve the impact of promotions. The data show how important it is to promote content on both linear and digital platforms and determine, for example, the right mix of promos on linear and digital platforms.

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How Changing Privacy Frameworks Are Affecting Marketing & Measurement

  • ARF Research Initiatives

A growing number of privacy regulations and data deprecations are creating a highly complicated landscape for marketers to maneuver through. To help us better understand how these forces affect marketing and marketing effectiveness measurement, the ARF recently gathered a group of experts on privacy-related topics from both practitioner and academic backgrounds, to discuss the key issues and outline ways forward. This report is the result of that effort. It includes an overview of the latest privacy-related macro-trends, implications for marketing and measurement and actionable recommendations.

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Better Attribution Research

This year’s Attribution & Analytics Accelerator event again focused on the science of marketing performance measurement. Experts presented and discussed insights from attribution studies, how to use marketing mix models, experiments and in-market testing, as well as new developments such as AI.   Read more »

Attribution & Analytics Accelerator 2022

The boldest and brightest minds joined us November 14 - 17 for Attribution & Analytics Accelerator 2022—the only event focused exclusively on attribution, marketing mix models, in-market testing and the science of marketing performance measurement. Experts led discussions to answer some of the industry’s most pressing questions and shared new innovations that can bring growth to your organization.

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A Guide to Validating Marketing Performance Models

Over the last dozen years, marketers have seen numerous analytical models surface to help guide data driven decision-making. Yet, many remain unsure of how trustworthy such models are. That’s why the Attribution Working Group of the ARF Cross-Platform Measurement Council put together this guidebook to help arm all stakeholders with a basic understanding of marketing performance model validation issues. This paper includes a set of considerations and questions that encourage and facilitate dialog between end clients and model providers about the performance of marketing performance models.

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FORECASTING 2022: How Can Scenario Planning Improve Agility in Adjusting to Change?

On July 12, 2022, forecasting, and product experts shared frameworks and strategies for participants to consider as they plan amid disruptions in the industry. Presenters discussed techniques marketers could use to drive consumer action and advocacy — as well as econometric models for search trends, insights on holistic analytics programs, reflections on gold standard probability methods — and new forecasting techniques in the wake of the pandemic and more.

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  • Article

Bridging the Gap Between Linear and Digital Measurement

Integrating linear TV in cross-platform measurement was a challenge undertaken in a partnership between Lucid and Samba TV utilizing ACR (automatic content recognition) and STB (set-top box) data matched to survey responses. Stephanie Gall (Lucid) and Karen Biedermann (Samba) shared details on the inherent problems, potential solutions and biggest learnings from this integration.

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