This paper focused on questions about creative: Do you know a good ad when you see it? How confident are you in your judgement? And how can marketers improve their ability to judge creative?
The research was conducted via an online survey in a Global CPG company and its agencies. There were about 700 decision-makers across every continent, comprised of marketers, creatives and insight staff. Each participant made up to five predictions, with an aggregate total of around 2,200.
Objectives: Document how well marketers predict ad sales effectiveness (important to benchmark) and Identify group(s) that might predict better than others (important for appointing decision makers)
Results: 49% were incorrect in their predictions, 51% were correct
What mattered: Role and category experience did matter–better predictions 5 to 10% of the time. In contrast, employer, tenure & responsibility for approving ads did not – Predictions were similarly in/accurate
How to improve their judgments:
- Predict > Test > Validate > Document – Ongoing “test and learn”
- Combine independent predictions or group decisions – There is some support for both
- Adopt decision aids & monitor performance – e.g. structured checklists
- Traits of a good forecaster… – accepting, careful, curious, self-critical
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