Causality Study Challenges TV Advertising-to-Sales Data Analysis

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Summary

Establishing causality in the TV advertising-to-sales relationship, ideally, is studied through randomized trials, which match respondents to exposure and non-exposure groups. Given the difficulties of such experiments, analysis of observational data, alternatively, can reveal links between ad campaigns and sales. But new research shows how failure to control for variants can produce misleading signals to advertisers.

Henry Assael (hassael@stern.nyu.edu) is Professor Emeritus of Marketing at the Stern School of Business, New York University. His widely published work focuses on evaluating advertising and media effectiveness, including a JAR Best Paper, “Silos to Synergy.” Among his other publications: Consumer Behavior and Marketing Action (seven editions); Marketing (three editions); and Marketing: Principles and Strategy (The Dryden Press series in marketing).

Masakazu Ishihara (mishihar@stern.nyu.edu) is Associate Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern School of Business. His research focuses on quantitative marketing and empirical industrial organization. Ishihara takes particular interest in the dynamic effects of marketing strategies, forward-looking decision making by consumers and ﬁrms, and marketing and economics in the entertainment industry.

Baek Jung Ki (baekjung.kim@sauder.ubc.ca) is Assistant Professor of Marketing at Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia. He coauthored this paper as a doctoral student at NYU Stern School of Business. Kim’s research interests include digital platform adoption and usage.