Managing business risk involves having a rational, data-driven view of the future while simultaneously being as prepared as possible for external shocks — from a global pandemic and the ensuing supply-chain disruptions, to inflation, data signal losses, war, and great power competition. At our annual Forecasting event, held virtually on July 18, leading experts shared how businesses can adapt forecasting techniques to manage risk.
Change has been the only constant of the past 18 months, but for brands that know how to adapt, this change represents opportunity. Holistic measurement – from understanding incremental impact across channels to building in considerations for macro factors like consumer behavior shifts and the pandemic – is key to sustained growth.
Dennis Buchheim has a unique perspective from “two sides” of the ad industry. He leads Facebook’s Ads Ecosystem team after serving as CEO of IAB Tech Lab. Dennis shared a view on how the industry is grappling with the shifting regulatory, platform, and technology landscape. Only together can the industry understand these changes and create paths forward. As opportunities are evaluated to evolve how data is used, research will be critical in refining the industry’s foundational knowledge and providing tactical guidance.
An impressive body of work is building in attention measurement. The three winning-papers sessions preceding this panel revealed a work in progress with shared goals as well as differences in approaches. Moderator Earl Taylor of the ARF’s MSI division asked the speakers about their views on barriers to the process, and opportunities for further improving attention measures.
Xandr’s Peter Doe reinforced the omnipresence of bias in TV measurement as he outlined four key areas of bias in assessing DirecTV’s (DTV) set-top box (STB) data for its national data-driven linear TV advertising. Noting DTV’s relatively low sampling size (7M STB homes) has a high level of bias when measuring for national TV viewing, Peter provided a top-line overview of Xandr’s viewership data methodology relevant to advertisers and marketers working with big datasets.
The academic study at the heart of this presentation compared 13 hierarchy-of-effects (HoE) advertising models to determine which model matters the most, what moderators are most prominent, and what factors and sequence are most important in driving sales. Understanding the sequence of effects is most important for advertisers and marketers as they build their campaigns.