leveraging data

  • Article

Concurrent Track Panel Discussion: New Methods to Validate Audience Estimates

Joan Fitzgerald - CEO, Data ImpacX

Stephanie Gall – Senior Product Manager, Measurement, Lucid

Caroline Horner - Chief Product Officer, 605

Michael J. McGuire - VP, Management Science Associates

Mark Mitchell - Xandr

Lisa Mulyk - Principal, SVP Strategy Solutions, IRI

Liz Ryan - Client Lead, Media Center of Excellence, IRI

Megan MargraffVP, Data Strategy, Oracle MODERATOR

Key Takeaways

  • The entire population needs to be represented in the search for alternate currencies, along with their viewing behaviors for accurate measurement, noted Mark Mitchell (Xandr). Fully on-boarding datasets requires that providers give the industry options that allows this in a “light-weight fashion” with the ability for testing, evaluation and adjustments. The goal is to ultimately get to a point where the marketplace can make a decision around options that inspire confidence in the industry.
  • The increase in complexity has different impacts on the buy side and the sell side. As brands look to TV to deliver more than upper funnel measurement, agencies will look to make the best data choices for their clients, Joan Fitzgerald (Data ImpacX) stated. They are going to be as flexible as they are in other areas of data decision making in picking the right currency to use for the right brand for the right question.
  • Incorporate data from both ad-supported and non-supported platforms in undertaking data normalization. Michael McGuire (MSA) works with his clients to understand the key metrics based on available data, making sure that the underlying platform allows flexibility so that over time as the industry and data continue to evolve, the underlying metrics also evolve.
  • Tying together TV and ad viewership data with surveys meant ensuring enough scale with the right data partner, according to Stephanie Gall (Lucid). Melding the use of deterministic device-level with survey-based individual profiles helped determine the likelihood that the same viewer was exposed to an ad.
  • More sophisticated targeting meant going beyond basic logic with machine learning and data at scale to identify nuances for one-on-one models that “take it all the way to outcomes” for Caroline Horner (605).
  • Purchase-based targeting in measurement for Liz Mulyk and Lisa Ryan at IRI meant optimizing towards results that worked across a portfolio of brands. Purchase data guided decision making strategically across planning cycle, from end to end, and scaling data with partners enabled modeling precision audiences that drove volume growth and incremental ROI.

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  • Article

Bridging the Gap Between Linear and Digital Measurement

Stephanie GallSenior Product Manager, Measurement, Lucid

Karen BiedermannDirector, Media Insights, Samba TV

Key Takeaways

  • Understand the “what” and “why” of measurement.
  • Identify proper creatives and whether testing should focus on brand ads or product-specific creatives.
  • Important to discuss potential impact ahead of time.
  • It is critical to understand change in rotations, flighting and dark periods along with which aspects should be evaluated based on main objectives.
  • Just under half (45%) of linear TV viewers are underexposed to linear ad campaigns.
  • Heavy TV viewers (20%) tend to be oversaturated with ads and might need stronger brand messaging in order to move the needle.
  • The majority (97%) of linear TV budgets spent in Q4 2021 reached only half of linear TV viewers.

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  • Article

Enabling Alternative TV Measurement for Buyers and Sellers

Pete DoeChief Research Officer, Xandr

Caroline HornerChief Product Officer, 605

Key Takeaways

  • In supporting multiple currencies for this project, Pete used a light integration of data that was easier to implement than a full onboarding of data, which is expensive, time-intensive and not always contractually feasible. The data-driven linear (DDL) viewing data was optimized in terms of impressions and ratings rather than reach.
  • Assessing the systematic differences between the currency provider and an alternative is necessary for currency conversion. Xandr saw very large differences between vendors.
  • Buyers and sellers need to understand how deals compare when assessed against different currencies.
  • Identifying audiences that were more likely to convert led 605 to follow an iterative process that checked effectiveness of prior campaign responses, studied how targets responded and refined them to create and execute against the new target audience for delivery conversion, frequency and lift.

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NYCU: Better Sales Predictions with Neuro Methods

A new study shows that using neuroscience-based methods is likely to increase the accuracy of real-world product sales.   This study, by academics in Canada, France and Germany, explored the ability of using different kinds of data to predict sales of new products before their launch. They compared in-house market data such as price and promotion level, customer attitudes based on a representative survey, and a neuroscience-based method: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data, which were obtained from a relatively small sample of individuals and collected in a laboratory. For the study, they used a large German retailer’s sales data to define an estimation data set to predict sales of 17 different new products, before they were launched.

  • Results indicate that using fMRI data to forecast sales of new products significantly increased forecasting accuracy: It led to a 28% better forecast than a model that considered historic sales data only. A model combining all data led to an improvement of 38%.
This study is significant for two reasons. First, it used fMRI data to predict real-world sales of new products – which is hardly ever done. Second, it confirms that the inclusion of neuroscience-based methods is likely to increase the accuracy of research findings and that neuro-based data, while more expensive to obtain, are usually superior to survey data. Source: Varga, M. et al. (2021, November 5). Predicting Sales of New Consumer Packaged Products with fMRI, Survey and Market Data. Marketing Science Institute (MSI) Working Paper Series 2021 Report No. 21-139. MSI at the ARF.  

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NYCU: A Memorable Quote

"Marketing has become too damn complicated," said MMA CEO Greg Stuart.

Source: Neff, J. (2021, December 2). Why The Death Of The Cookie Is Threating Multi-Touch Attribution—Forcing It To AdaptDataDrivenMarketing, AdAge.

Note: Only subscribers of AdAge can read the full article.

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Improving Product Sales Predictions Is Brain Science

  • MSI

It’s no surprise that new product launches often fail to meet their targets. The trick for managers is to improve their predictions for such products. They must balance the costs and benefits of many different data sources and analytic techniques in order to improve forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the market-level sales of new products, researchers Marton Varga, Anita Tusche, Paulo Albuquerque, Nadine Gier, Bernd Weber, and Hilke Plassmann, analyzed the added value of different data types. Their conclusions are illuminating.

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NYCU: The Truth About Ad Impact

Marketing expert Grace Kite thinks that reports on ad effectiveness often do not tell the whole story.

New Grace Kite research finds 40-50% of ad budget online brings highest returns. This obscures the important lessons that the totality of the industry can provide about the business, argues Dr Grace Kite, whose new dataset holds valuable, agenda-resetting insights. Why it matters: Most brands don't win awards for their advertising. Most advertising makes little difference, or things go wrong, or key people leave, but lessons from the norm of advertising are fundamental to understanding how the industry works and how to improve it. This new dataset tells a very different tale from analyses of award-winners only.

Only subscribers of WARC can read the full article.

Source: Peña-Taylor, S. (2021, October). Event Reports, EffWorks Global, October 2021.

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