incrementality

Creative Effectiveness 2026

Creative Effectiveness 2026

On October 14, the ARF Creative Effectiveness conference dove into the challenges shaping creative strategy today. Industry experts explored how marketers can balance short-term results with long-term brand building, measure creative impact, and leverage AI and commerce media without sacrificing brand equity. Attendees heard perspectives on what’s working, what isn’t, and how to connect creative strategy to measurable business outcomes. Following the conference, the ARF David Ogilvy Awards were held to celebrate research- and insight-driven advertising.

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What Buyers Expect from Retail Media Measurement

What Buyers Expect from Retail Media Measurement

  • ARF; The Advertising Club of New York

As retail media expands across onsite, offsite and in-store environments, buyers are looking beyond basic attribution to determine whether advertising is actually driving incremental sales. In a guest article for The Advertising Club of New York, Tracy Adams, PhD, ARF Senior Director of Research & Insights, examines findings from the second phase of the ARF Retail Media Network Standardization Project, revealing what advertisers and agencies say they need to make retail media measurement more comparable, transparent and trustworthy.

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Saturation Curves Are a Relic: How Large Causal Models Are Replacing Linear Projection with True Marketing Optimization

Saturation Curves Are a Relic: How Large Causal Models Are Replacing Linear Projection with True Marketing Optimization

  • INSIGHTS STUDIOS

On September 10, DATA POEM introduced interconnected, non-linear optimization using Large Causal Models, which enable real-time, granular decision-making across all marketing levers and market scenarios. This session was designed for leaders who suspect their current optimization framework is leaving significant value on the table—and want to understand what the architectural alternative looks like in practice.

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Making Sense of Open-Source Marketing Mix Modeling

Making Sense of Open-Source Marketing Mix Modeling

  • ARF; MSI

As privacy changes make it harder for marketers to track individual customer journeys, media and marketing mix modeling (m/MMM) is experiencing renewed interest. Open-source tools from Meta, Google and the PyMC ecosystem promise to make these methods more accessible, particularly for organizations without the resources for customized proprietary models. In this MSI working paper, Julian Runge and Koen Pauwels evaluate the leading open-source approaches, examining their capabilities, differences and tradeoffs. Their analysis shows that while automation can democratize sophisticated marketing measurement, using these tools responsibly requires careful attention to model assumptions, diagnostics, calibration and validation.

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How AI Is Changing Omnichannel Campaign Optimization—and Measurement

How AI Is Changing Omnichannel Campaign Optimization—and Measurement

  • ARF
  • Cross-Platform Measurement Council — Attribution Working Group

AI-optimized, omnichannel campaigns are changing how media are planned, activated and measured. Drawing on in-depth interviews with advertisers and providers, the ARF Cross-Platform Measurement Council’s Attribution Working Group examined omnichannel campaign tools such as Google Performance Max and Meta Advantage+, exploring their potential to simplify execution, optimize across channels and improve performance. Their research also identified important tradeoffs, including transparency, testing capabilities and ongoing measurement and governance challenges.

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