There have been dramatic changes in loyalty due to the pandemic, requiring a re-examination of the measures of loyalty, churn, and the value of new vs. loyal buyers. NCSolutions analyzed why it is important to compare loyalty measures longitudinally to gauge a brand’s health, as well as to understand which advertising and promotional strategies have been successful and to determine whether to focus on driving penetration or brand loyalty.
The presenters analyzed the past attribution challenges for Chipotle and proposed new measurement solutions. Chipotle wanted proof that its TV commercials drove sales. Chipotle and WarnerMedia developed an outcome-guaranteed deal based on sales lift, rather than impressions. For Chipotle, incremental transactions are most important. These transactions were also measured for the competitors. The goal was to provide purposeful, visible, and accountable results.
Traditional linear TV places the same ads in the same shows (“program targeting”). Addressable TV can place different ads in the same show, allowing “audience-based” targeting at the household (HH) level. To determine the incremental lift achieved by audience-based targeting, we need to measure outcomes at the individual (HH) level. This allows us to run what/if scenarios with the models to determine optimal targeting. The researchers analyzed second-by-second viewing data from a panel with 750,000 HHs, tracking exposure to focal and competitor ads. The fact that advertisers tend to mainly target consumers already likely to buy creates potential endogeneity. The analyses controlled for this and three other factors: heterogeneity in ad avoidance; activity bias; and seasonality and other trends. During the observed 15-month period, there was a 4.1% conversion for those HHs in the market for the focal offer.
Consumer behaviors have changed dramatically creating new challenges for brands and their marketing measurement. During this Insights Studio, we explored the measurement challenges brands have faced in the wake of significant consumer changes. We also discussed best practices brands should be using to ensure their marketing measurement is set up for future success as consumers continue to react to major societal change. Executives from OptiMine, an agile marketing analytics provider, Kepler, a global digital agency, and Beachbody, an innovative health and fitness company, shared their observations on how changes in consumer shopping and media consumption behaviors have been reflected in marketing measurement.
Kevin Whitcher (DISQO) provided an overview of current identifier availability and their use in measuring ad outcomes.
The industry has witnessed the ongoing extinction of 3P identifiers since 2016 with the passage of GDPR. While the means to measure digital ad exposure are disappearing, the need is not. Eighty-five percent of buyers and sellers are concerned about the effect of privacy changes on their ad buys and overall business, according to DISQO research. Publishers have data to measure digital ad exposure, but only in their own siloed platforms. However, measuring ad effectiveness on one platform is not an effective solution since neither people nor media plans are media-monogamous. Additionally, IP addresses are not a viable alternative to identity lifelines.
Creative is the dominant ROI driver across all media platforms according to Nielsen Catalina Solutions: creative 49%, media 36%, and brand 15%. However, creative is challenging to measure. The speakers provided an ABCD insights framework for building effective ads on YouTube based on the key creative elements that drive sales as proven by Google’s partner, Nielsen.
Hong Zou of Adobe talked about how they measure campaign incrementality and ROI using both first-party and third-party identifiers. Their method was born in 2020, out of the need to refocus from lower funnel marketing campaign performance to upper funnel performance. Adobe matches one group of people exposed to the campaign with a look-alike group who were not exposed. Since all other attributes are the same, any differences can be attributed to the campaign itself.
Greg Dolan (Keen Decision Systems) and Mark Bennet (Johnsonville Milwaukee) examined how to navigate in uncertain and volatile times in the current marketplace using next-generation marketing mix solutions. In the opening, Greg explored the progression of marketing from the late 90s, through what he dubbed “The Roaring 20s.” He noted that we went from a minimally complex, slower-paced “top-down” approach in the 1990s to a very fast-paced, complex environment with a shift to Retail Media and a unified approach where we apply next-generation predictive analytics in the 2020s. Greg discussed the intricacies of their approach of combining historical data with predictive/prescriptive plans to address drastic changes in the current environment, leveraging ML. He provided a case study that demonstrated the successful application of the next-generation marketing mix. In addition, Mark gave a client perspective on how they are handling market uncertainty.
Sameer Kothari (PepsiCo) and Todd Kirk (Middlegame Marketing Sciences) examined the application of a transformed rendition of marketing mix modeling created through the development of a proprietary system called the “ROI Engine.” Sameer indicated the desire to harness the “true potential of marketing mix models even beyond measuring past campaigns and using it for strategic planning looking forward.” Sameer discussed this system as having a more “predictive ROI outcome-based approach” by “leveraging an ecosystem of leading indicators for before and during a campaign flight.”
Zach Kubin of Adelaide began the session by explaining how reach has become increasingly fragmented. Digital, viewability and ACR tell an incomplete story, which makes it difficult to assess the quality of the media brands are buying. Adelaide combines all the available metrics into their own algorithm, which they call the Attention Metric (AU). Filip Pujic of Audi gave details from the car company’s use case, where it integrated AU using Adelaide’s algorithm into programmatic bidding, driving positive business outcomes. Audi will conduct a follow-up study to validate the results they have received.