Attribution

Find the latest and most impactful research on the measurement of marketing ROI and attribution here. All the research listed comes from the ARF or one of its subsidiaries: The Journal of Advertising Research (JAR), the Marketing Science Institute (MSI) or the Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement (CIMM). Feel free to bookmark this page, as it will be updated periodically.

Is Big Brother (or Little Sister) Watching – And Does it Matter?

  • MSI

Who is really watching that TV ad and how does doing so affect their behavior? Analyzing attention in real-time demonstrates the value of TV ads. Attention studies are especially important now with the rapid growth of streaming video on demand (SVOD) and other alternatives. Their rise has heightened the importance of determining what and where audiences are viewing and how that’s impacting their behavior.

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Modeling Cultural Mindsets with Endorser Origins to Predict Brand Attitudes

  • JOURNAL OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH

An endorser’s native origin can trigger brand reactions in consumers due to their cultural predispositions. New research in this area has revisited ethnocentrism and xenocentrism, not as diametrically opposed mindsets but as ones coexisting in dynamic configurations, with each mindset expressed or suppressed as a result of origin cues from brands and endorsers. The resulting models provide blueprints for predicting favorable attitudes, by aligning targeting and messaging strategies with appropriate mindsets and origin cues.

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What’s the Best Format for “Supers” in DTC TV Ads?

  • JOURNAL OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH

In a study on formatting characteristics in direct-to-consumer, prescription-drug advertising, the adage ”God is in the details” rings loud and true. TV and online video ads use superimposed text to convey additional information about a drug’s risks and benefits. But, researchers asked, how much can details like text size and contrast affect awareness and attitudes?

  • Article

MSI: Generalizable and Robust TV Advertising Effects

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.  

Oracle Data Cloud Tackles Audience Quality

  • CMO BRIEF

$48 billion was spent on digital display advertising in the US in 2018. That’s up 5 percent from just a few years ago. Unfortunately, most advertisers are unaware of the need to focus on audience quality. Without doing so, consumers can be overwhelmed with messages or encounter irrelevant ones. They become annoyed or frustrated, resulting in missed opportunities and wasted resources.

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  • Article

JAR: Analyzing the Click Path of Affiliate-Marketing Campaigns

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.  

  • Article

JAR: Coalition Game Theory in Attribution Modeling: Measuring What Matters at Scale

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.  

  • Article

JAR: Attribution Modeling in Digital Advertising

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.  

  • Article

MSI: Advertising and Brand Attitudes: Evidence from 575 Brands over Five Years

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.  

  • Article

MSI: A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook

TV ads can drive brand reach, which is a key intermediate metric of a TV advertisement’s effectiveness. Fortunately, new technologies allow more realistic and granular observation and analysis of viewing behavior. In this study, Matthew McGranaghan, Jura Liaukonyte and Kenneth C. Wilbur address three questions about TV advertising viewing: How do traditional tuning data compare to new TV viewing metrics? How do new viewing metrics capture consumer response to ad content? And can these viewing metrics help predict subsequent consumer behavior?

Analyzing actual attention in real-time demonstrates that TV ads can drive brand search, a key intermediate metric of advertising effectiveness.”
To answer the aforementioned questions, researchers analyzed data for 3,659 individuals in 1,155 participating households between July 2016 and June 2017. They assessed on a second-by-second basis whether the primary TV was tuned to a given program, which individuals (if any) were in the room and whether or not their attention was directed to the TV during programs and ad breaks. The data on 6,650 frequent ad videos included ad environment (network, date, air time, program, genre and episode) and content (creative name, product name, brand name, product category, and ad duration). Researchers took this together with other features such as tagline, music and movie identifiers, sentiment and mood scores and the number of scene transitions. The researchers used broadcast networks’ quasi-random ordering of ads within commercial breaks, to identify the causal effects of ads on viewing behaviors among four million advertising exposures. Comparing new and traditional viewing metrics, the study found that 30% of TV ads played to empty rooms. What’s more, viewers are roughly four times more likely to leave the room during an ad than to turn the channel or select another show/streaming app. Unsurprisingly, shorter ads retain more viewers and attention than longer ads on a per-second basis. Ads during football games and recreational product ads had the highest levels of audience tuning and presence. Prescription drug ads had the lowest. As the researchers hypothesized, attention helps predict brand search lift after ads. Read the full working paper here.