How to Cut Waste and Fuel Growth with Incrementality-Based Attribution
With Trevor Testwuide (Measured) providing context and Ian Yung (Tonal) guiding the case studies from Pinterest and Google, the two presenters tested whether ads/channels were working and how far marketers can scale them. Trevor compared last-touch attribution to incremental ROAS, showing the significant discrepancies between platform-reported and media-driven incremental conversions. The incrementality experiment methodologies used in the case studies were cohort based first-party audience split testing and geo-matched market incrementality testing, which Trevor noted were must-haves in determining where to cut waste and where to scale. Results from the case studies measuring holdout cohorts showed overinvestment in Pinterest based on organic conversions, and a 13% increase in ROAS on Google Shopping from under-reporting of incrementality.