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FORECASTING 2022: How Can Scenario Planning Improve Agility in Adjusting to Change?

On July 12, 2022, forecasting, and product experts shared frameworks and strategies for participants to consider as they plan amid disruptions in the industry. Presenters discussed techniques marketers could use to drive consumer action and advocacy — as well as econometric models for search trends, insights on holistic analytics programs, reflections on gold standard probability methods — and new forecasting techniques in the wake of the pandemic and more.

ATTENTION 2023

On June 7, 2023, attention economy experts came together in NYC to share case studies and participate in engaging discussions on the attention measurement landscape. Plus, attendees heard a recap of the issues debated at AUDIENCExSCIENCE and an update on Phase I of the ARF Attention Validation Initiative, an empirically based evaluation of the rapidly developing market for attention measurement and prediction.

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Do I Have Your Attention? Banner Blindness Tactics, Roadblock Ads and Influencer Cues

At this Insights Studio, speakers on four different continents presented their work published in the JAR, with common themes of attention and frequency. Two presentations focused on banner blindness tactics: one compared the effectiveness of personalization and extreme creative strategies, while the other showed how unexpected ads like pop-ups and floaters drive attention and shape attitudes. A study on roadblock advertising tackled the question: Is this attention-getting tactic worth the substantial cost? And lastly: effects of influencer disclosures over time within a framework of consumer skepticism. A lively Q&A discussion explored the roles of attention and inattention in creative and media, contextual nuances, frequency effects of roadblock advertising and influencer disclosures, differences in attention factors across cultures, and the need for more research overall in the area of attention.

Evidence-Based Research for Effective Marketing

On November 9, 2022, industry leaders joined us to share highlights from EffWorks Global 2022 — a week-long celebration of the best new thinking and evidence-based decision-making research for marketing effectiveness. Topics of discussion included: marketing in the post-Covid economy, effective advertising in unprecedented times, the value of Share of Voice/Share of Attention/Share of Search in terms of effectiveness and commercial decision making, and more.

The Social Media Landscape

Over the last six months, social media has received a lot of attention on numerous fronts, from economic challenges the platforms are facing to changing hands in ownership to the recent Congressional hearings. This event looked at consumers’ current relationships to social media and their perceptions of social media platforms and use cases. Experts from the Social Council reported on the results of a survey of 2,490 social media users that they had conducted in partnership with Dynata that took a deeper look at social media’s role and function in the daily lives and experiences of its users. The findings unveiled eye opening insights and opportunities to help marketers understand where and how they can engage their target audiences on social media.

Metaverse: The Next Media Landscape

Vera Chien of Warner Bros. Discovery gave an overview of what the metaverse is and where it’s going. The metaverse will leverage gaming, social media, cryptocurrency, 5G, blockchain/NFTs, AI/ML and more as adjacencies, but it will not be controlled by any one of these or any one industry. The metaverse will be interactive, interoperable, decentralized, and will focus on creativity. The creator economy will likely flourish there. One helpful suggestion Vera made was to leverage digital assets and find other homes for them to give consumers unique and memorable experiences. While 39% of 18–50-year-olds have heard of the metaverse, almost all consumers have had some type of experience that will be commonplace in this “next version of the internet.” Millennials, Gen Z and Gen Alpha have grown up with such experiences.

How to Cut Waste and Fuel Growth with Incrementality-Based Attribution

With Trevor Testwuide (Measured) providing context and Ian Yung (Tonal) guiding the case studies from Pinterest and Google, the two presenters tested whether ads/channels were working and how far marketers can scale them. Trevor compared last-touch attribution to incremental ROAS, showing the significant discrepancies between platform-reported and media-driven incremental conversions. The incrementality experiment methodologies used in the case studies were cohort based first-party audience split testing and geo-matched market incrementality testing, which Trevor noted were must-haves in determining where to cut waste and where to scale. Results from the case studies measuring holdout cohorts showed overinvestment in Pinterest based on organic conversions, and a 13% increase in ROAS on Google Shopping from under-reporting of incrementality.

How Retailers are Connecting the Metaverse to the Real World and Revenue

AJ Dalal of Publicis Sapient defined the metaverse and outlined some pioneering moves certain brands have taken within it. He also shared advice on how to be successful in this burgeoning new phase of the internet. The interoperability of web 3.0 allows consumers to take their avatar and NFTs across platforms, which unlocks highly personalized and unique experiences and the ability to execute instant settlement in real time. To ensure success, a brand should remember its target market, which in this space is 16- to 25-year-olds, concentrate on what value their experience brings to the consumer, be authentic and specific and consider an evolving roadmap, being transparent with users that the experience rests on new technology and might evolve and improve over time.

The Modern Grocery Run

Julianne Hudson of VMYL&R uncovered the results of two rounds of interviews examining the rocket ship of growth that took place in online grocery shopping beginning at the advent of COVID-19. The trend continues presently. The interviews took place eleven months apart, one in 2022 with around 2,000 respondents with a follow-up in January this year with approximately the same number, a sample totaling 4,200. Each respondent had shopped for groceries online in at least some capacity. The study helped show what online grocery shopping expectations are and what does and does not translate from the in-store to the online shopping experience.

Shifting Consumer Shopping Behaviors and Path to Purchase

Ian Essling and Jason Clough of Comscore uncovered trends in U.S. digital commerce, which  reached $1 trillion for the first time last year, a benchmark resulting from a buildup of year-round spending rather than mostly focused on the holiday season. Their data was comprised of two types, mobile (mobile or tablet) and digital (mobile or desktop) commerce. Each was defined as dollars spent online in non-travel, retail categories. Mobile now accounts for 40% of all digital retail dollars spent. Groceries, which includes pet supplies, health and beauty and baby supplies, saw record mobile and digital growth last year, overtaking apparel for the first time. In addition, while in the past, U.S. consumers were resistant to buying big ticket items, such as rugs, TVs, consumer electronics, a car or furniture, online, today such actions have become commonplace.