THE LAST WORD – MONDAY
This panel discussion closed out the first day of the conference, highlighting the anchor commentators’ key takeaways from the day’s sessions.
future state
The Future of Media
The last year-and-a-half has presented the media industry with a number of unique challenges when it comes to measuring how content is being consumed across platforms. In this one-on-one conversation, Comscore’s Bill Livek joins the ARF’s Scott McDonald to discuss how today’s viewership behaviors have signaled the need for a more modern cross-screen measurement approach and outline the fundamental changes necessary to effectively transact on media today and into the future.
Forecasting Outcomes for Optimized Impact in a Time of Uncertainty
Mark Wilson, Associate VP at Analytic Partners, advocated the value of scenario planning for businesses. Scenario planning is particularly helpful for new product launches, forecasting the impact of price increases, and budget planning. The keys to their success are that they be data-driven, collaborative across functional teams, ongoing, and iterative, with continuous updating of inputs. A successful scenario planning framework defines success criteria, identifies performance drivers — both controllable and non-controllable — and incorporates critical business dynamics. Marketing drives 15% to 30% of sales, more for some businesses, and companies that adopt data-driven simulations can drive much more growth than companies that do not.
Breaking Down the Garden Walls of Streaming vs. Linear
Based on new analyses of Nielsen’s data, including their new “Gauge” measure which includes streaming, Brian Fuhrer’s presentation focused on a new trend in viewer behavior “STRIVE”–Streaming Live or Linear Streaming–through an app.
DISCUSSION
This panel, moderated by Scott McDonald, led a discussion in response to the presentations on the generational implications in marketing and advertising. Topics of discussion included the notion of labels and challenges that can be associated with them, using generational attributes as a starting point or a “lens,” and the idea that while generations may be an indicator, values and certain behaviors can “transcend age.”
Generations are Messy but Meaningful
J. Walker thanked Bobby Duffy for his insights and perspectives and offered a somewhat different take: He stressed that generations are an important way to study social change. They are a useful construct, but they are not perfect. According to J. Walker, generations are best understood as an aggregation of life trajectories, shared circumstances and events as generational members come of age. Graduating during a recession or growing up in a pandemic will shape those generations. Cohorts who grow up at the same time and share common experiences, expectations and values matter for brands and culture. The shared starting point is the critical factor. Comparing Boomers at 20 years old with Millennials at 20 is the relevant point. A general comparison of Boomers vs. Millennials is not relevant.
The Generation Myth
Highlighting key points from his book, The Generation Myth: Why When You’re Born Matters Less Than You Think, Bobby Duffy presented his research on generational thinking as a powerful idea corrupted by stereotypes, myths, and cliches. As he tracked today’s generations over time (Pre-War, Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z) to see what is truly generational, Bobby looked for gaps between young and old on attitudes to everything from drinking, smoking, and loneliness to race, gender equality and climate change. He found that many analyses and forecasts about consumer behavior ignore the complexity of change, that is, they only look at one of the three mechanisms that cause changes: Cohort Effects—Behaviors, attitudes and beliefs that are more common among members of a generation; Period Effects—Changes resulting from events and circumstances that affect everybody, all generations, from war and disasters to periods of economic boom; Life-Cycle Effects—Members of all generations change as they grow older and experience getting married, having children, etc. The key to using generational analyses in consumer behavior forecasts, therefore, is to untangle these three mechanisms and recognize the importance of period and life-cycle effects to avoid overstating cohort effects.
2022: A Media Universe Big Bang
Sharing his latest “Media Universe Map,” which describes the rapidly changing media landscape, Evan Shapiro conducted a discussion based on the map to exemplify the swiftly developing and competitive media ecosystem. Noting the “war for attention” in the new media landscape, he indicated that the largest media companies (“The Death Stars”), such as Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia, will play a direct or indirect role in what happens to smaller or emerging companies. Other drivers of the media ecosystem include the balance of single unit and subscription sales, generational effects, and the emergence of the creator content economy.
Implications of Changing Privacy Frameworks on Measurement & Marketing (Part II)
During Part 2 of our Insights Studio on Privacy experts from Neustar, Sallie Mae and the ARF examined what privacy changes mean for marketers. They discussed the importance of a mutually agreed upon value exchange between the consumer and the brand and the implications of the changing privacy frameworks for the targeting and measurement of advertising. Although there are challenges related to consumer privacy, regulatory issues and measurement, the panelists were optimistic about the potential for resolution.