This study explores how divergent delivery in A-B testing affects the accuracy of online advertising experiments. It highlights the role of algorithmic targeting and user heterogeneity in confounding test results, offering guidance for marketers to improve their experimental designs.
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This study explores the identification of nonlinear and time-varying effects in marketing mix models (MMM). It highlights the challenges of conflation in model selection and proposes a framework for simulating and estimating these effects using Gaussian processes. The study emphasizes the importance of accurately identifying the underlying response to optimize marketing spending.
The research provides insights into the complexities of marketing effectiveness and offers practical solutions for improving model accuracy. By addressing the issue of conflation, the study aims to enhance the decision-making process in marketing strategies.
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How we use data today looks different given evolving regulations, platform changes, consumers expectations of data transparency, and more. Our Insights Studio on January 30 explored the latest developments in data privacy and how they are impacting marketing strategies. Panelists unveiled strategies to establish consumer trust and effectively market, while aligning with privacy regulations.
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Can sanitized AI tools truly capture the nuance required for advertising and brand research? Is a less restrained one more likely to produce skewed results? This comparative deep dive, from ARF and MSI, is the second study in the Psychology of Gen AI series. It explores how two popular large language models—ChatGPT-4o and Grok 3—respond when prompted with complex topics. The findings highlight how content moderation affects not only tone and specificity, but the very boundaries of inquiry. For advertising researchers navigating sensitive brand perception topics, understanding these model tradeoffs is essential.
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This experiment, the first phase of the fourth study in the Psychology of Gen AI series, such as loss aversion, but also compress variability into uniform patterns. This raises concerns for advertising researchers who rely on authentic insights into consumer behavior.
Member Only AccessThe 2016 U.S. presidential election served a big blow to the polling community, as pre-election predictions proved to be dramatically wrong. But is there really a crisis in pre-election polling? Mark Blumenthal, Head of Election Polling at SurveyMonkey, summarizes the AAPOR’s post-election investigation that demonstrated the accuracy of national polls, but weaknesses in state-level polls. Part of the challenge going forward – correcting for sample bias in an age of lower survey response rates.
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Our first, annual benchmark survey looked into the dramatic changes that occurred in advertising and marketing research organizations from 2018-2019. We have delivered a series of reports: the advertiser, agency, research, media & entertainment and consultancy report. Now, the ARF has released the interactive access via a searchable database. Members can interrogate the data and findings themselves and query segmentations such as job title, category, structure, size and investment trends.
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There are a lot of questions surrounding how media is evolving, how viewers select content out of seemingly innumerable choices and how streaming services decide what to adopt. While several ARF events have tackled such questions, experts weighed in with their most recent insights at February’s Leadership Lab at ARF headquarters in New York City. Dubbed Future State: Navigating the New Media Landscape, the ARF’s CRO Paul Donato and EVP of Research and Innovation, Dr. Horst Stipp, co-chaired an event that dished out oodles of interesting insights. Editor’s Note: The full report is available to members only.
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