An Economic Analysis of TV Advertising Profitability

Professor Anna Tuchman of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management presented an economic analysis of the effectiveness of a major portion of the U.S. linear television advertising spend, worth $66B in 2019. The study, conducted with Bradley Shapiro and Günter Hitsch of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, investigated the elasticity of actual sales for 288 distinct CPG brands on the basis of brand-specific ad spend as captured by Nielsen store and household panels along with Nielsen Ad Intel data. They used log-log regression and flexible machine learning algorithms. Their goal is to help firms evaluate ad campaign effectiveness with the hope their measurement will help make better ad spend decisions.

Attentive Reach: The Case for Human Attention in Brand Advertising

Realeyes uses software solutions for measuring human attentional and emotional response to advertising. Max Kalehoff explained the importance of attention measurement as a gauge of brand performance. He urged companies, particularly those with latent sales, to incorporate it into their business models.


This live panel featured the presenters from the New Methods to Validate Audience Estimates track, with moderator Megan Margraff of Oracle following up on key points involving alternate data currencies, data harmonization and normalization, fragmentation challenges and advanced targeting in TV and CPG.

Privacy Safe Approach to Ecommerce Audience Quality Measurement

A multi-billion dollar pet food manufacturer analyzed its audience targeting strategy with the goal of ensuring efficient online ad spending, according to Souptik Datta and Zulema Doiny-Cabre of GroupM. The analysis with GroupM evaluated the performance of existing audience segments, pinpointed profiles of high-performing audience segments for additional opportunities and determined the optimal ad impression frequency.

Doldrum of COVID Leads to Breakthrough Creative

In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, PepsiCo embarked on a 21-month research project to find out how the quarantining affected people’s lives. The goal: adapt its brand messaging to the experiences of its core consumers, from both a human and consumption perspective, and then develop new creative. “We know that our primary consumers are really out there,” Kevin Moeller of PepsiCo said, citing data on Pepsi’s core base. “They enjoy letting loose, they don’t like to hold back. They’re people that sing karaoke and cheer at sports events. So how did quarantining impact them?”

Audience Trends for Products With Supply Constraints

IRI’s Michael Tscherwinski addressed the challenges marketers are facing due to supply-constraints and provided a best-practices playbook for unlocking opportunities. IRI’s 2022 outlook on product availability predicts continued challenges. Inflation, supply chain issues, as well as the war in the Ukraine, impact the operations of CPG companies. Category out-of-stock conditions are widespread, and many CPGs are pausing media. However, Procter & Gamble, one of the largest advertisers in the world, stated that it would continue to invest in marketing.

Growing ROI with YouTube ABCDs Creative Effectiveness Guidelines

Creative is the dominant ROI driver across all media platforms according to Nielsen Catalina Solutions: creative 49%, media 36%, and brand 15%. However, creative is challenging to measure. The speakers provided an ABCD insights framework for building effective ads on YouTube based on the key creative elements that drive sales as proven by Google’s partner, Nielsen.

  • Attention: Hook viewers and sustain attention with an immersive story.
  • Branding: Brand early, often, and richly.
  • Connection: Help consumers think or feel something.
  • Direction: Ask consumers to take action. Call-to-action has a disproportionate impact.

FORECASTING 2022: How Can Scenario Planning Improve Agility in Adjusting to Change?

On July 12, 2022, forecasting, and product experts shared frameworks and strategies for participants to consider as they plan amid disruptions in the industry. Presenters discussed techniques marketers could use to drive consumer action and advocacy — as well as econometric models for search trends, insights on holistic analytics programs, reflections on gold standard probability methods — and new forecasting techniques in the wake of the pandemic and more.

Evidence-Based Research for Effective Marketing

On November 9, 2022, industry leaders joined us to share highlights from EffWorks Global 2022 — a week-long celebration of the best new thinking and evidence-based decision-making research for marketing effectiveness. Topics of discussion included: marketing in the post-Covid economy, effective advertising in unprecedented times, the value of Share of Voice/Share of Attention/Share of Search in terms of effectiveness and commercial decision making, and more.

What Brands Did in 2020

In this presentation, Paul Donato, CRO of the ARF, covered findings from the seminal year of the “What Brands Did in 2020” (Brands 2020) project. This project will go on for at least the next two years or until the effects of 2020 are no longer felt. ARF researchers in the Brands 2020 study used IRI and NCS data, Kantar Ad Insights, NCS sales and Nielsen Ad Intel data, between 2017 and 2021. The IRI data was a very deep dive but across three categories: salty snacks, pasta sauce and personal care products. The NCS data was shallower but across 10 broad categories. Using all these data, ARF researchers looked at share of media, media spend and share of market before and after March 2020 (Covid) and before and after March of 2021 (start of inflation).