The Attribution & Analytics Accelerator returned for its eighth year as the only event focused exclusively on attribution, marketing mix models, in-market testing and the science of marketing performance measurement. The boldest and brightest minds took the stage to share their latest innovations and case studies. Modelers, marketers, researchers and data scientists gathered in NYC to quicken the pace of innovation, fortify the science and galvanize the industry toward best practices and improved solutions. Content is available to event attendees and ARF members.
On July 12, 2022, forecasting, and product experts shared frameworks and strategies for participants to consider as they plan amid disruptions in the industry. Presenters discussed techniques marketers could use to drive consumer action and advocacy — as well as econometric models for search trends, insights on holistic analytics programs, reflections on gold standard probability methods — and new forecasting techniques in the wake of the pandemic and more.
At this ARF Insights Studio, OptiMine provided attendees with real-world findings and success stories from large brands. Matt Voda, CEO, and Dr. Robert Cooley, Ph.D., CTO & Chief Data Scientist, detailed how they’ve navigated rapid budget adjustments, huge channel shifts, optimal timing of spend changes and outlined how to remain invested in marketing during budget pressure. Insights on key pitfalls to avoid, techniques to exploit and how to adapt during what is likely to be a very bumpy “recovery” were also shared.
On November 9, 2022, industry leaders joined us to share highlights from EffWorks Global 2022 — a week-long celebration of the best new thinking and evidence-based decision-making research for marketing effectiveness. Topics of discussion included: marketing in the post-Covid economy, effective advertising in unprecedented times, the value of Share of Voice/Share of Attention/Share of Search in terms of effectiveness and commercial decision making, and more.
Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) worked with Civis Analytics (CA) to optimize their TV programming promotions over 30 U.S. networks that premieres dozens of seasons annually across a diverse linear TV portfolio. Max Schuman explained how CA’s approach blended classic marketing mix model (MMM)’s regression models with machine learning’s (ML) ability to discern relationships that best predict outcomes humans can’t see easily. With a custom model that was able to guide decision-making on several levels—what TV series to promote, how and where to market, and what ROI to expect—WBD used CA’s platform as a starting point for all media decisions throughout the full funnel, inclusive of owned and paid media.
Zach Kubin of Adelaide began the session by explaining how reach has become increasingly fragmented. Digital, viewability and ACR tell an incomplete story, which makes it difficult to assess the quality of the media brands are buying. Adelaide combines all the available metrics into their own algorithm, which they call the Attention Metric (AU). Filip Pujic of Audi gave details from the car company’s use case, where it integrated AU using Adelaide’s algorithm into programmatic bidding, driving positive business outcomes. Audi will conduct a follow-up study to validate the results they have received.
This research replicates a 2021 study by Nicole Hartnett and colleagues who had analyzed what happens to sales when brands stop advertising for a year or longer. The difference in this new work is not only its focus on the impact of going dark on market share, but its use of much more extensive data, with farther-reaching conclusions and future research recommendations. It adds robustness to the prior evidence that when brands stop advertising, declines become more common and more significant, on average, as time increases.
Brian Wieser’s keynote address covered four trends that are affecting the media and advertising industries: industry consolidation, the rise of ad-free TV, the emergence of new e-commerce marketers and procurement. After his presentation, Scott McDonald probed him further about his observations about the state of the media and advertising marketplace in 2023. His key points on these four trends and highlights of Brian’s conversation with Scott appear below.
Nicole Hartnett, Ph.D – Senior Marketing Scientist, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute
This research replicates a 2021 study by Nicole Hartnett and colleagues who had analyzed what happens to sales when brands stop advertising for a year or longer. The difference in this new work is not only its focus on the impact of going dark on market share, but its use of much more extensive data, with farther-reaching conclusions and future research recommendations. It adds robustness to the prior evidence that when brands stop advertising, declines become more common and more significant, on average, as time increases.
Whereas the 2021 study’s data were for a single product category — alcoholic beverages in Australia (bulk keg sales to bars and pubs and units sold by specialty alcohol retailers) — the 2023 data span 22 consumer goods categories and 365 brands sold widely in supermarkets in the U.S. Both studies look at brand size and prior trajectory conditions but the 2023 research adds whether the relationship between market share change and advertising cessation holds across product categories. Ultimately practitioners can use this work as a baseline to determine the possible effects of stopping advertising when advertising cuts are required, and as input into business cases to keep their ad budgets.
Key Takeaways
Market share, of brands that stopped advertising for at least one year, declined on average at a steady rate year over year.
Losses were quantified as declining by 10 percent after one year, 20 percent after two years and 28 percent after three years relative to the last advertised year, on average.
Brand size and market share trajectory before stopping advertising affect the rate of market share decline. Brands already in decline, and smaller brands suffered greater loss of market share.
This research adds to the evidence that advertising continuity over the long-term benefits brand performance.
