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FORECASTING 2022: How Can Scenario Planning Improve Agility in Adjusting to Change?

  • Posted: June 14, 2023

On July 12, 2022, forecasting, and product experts shared frameworks and strategies for participants to consider as they plan amid disruptions in the industry. Presenters discussed techniques marketers could use to drive consumer action and advocacy — as well as econometric models for search trends, insights on holistic analytics programs, reflections on gold standard probability methods — and new forecasting techniques in the wake of the pandemic and more.

Marketing Measurement in the Pandemic Era–Navigating to Success

  • Posted: June 8, 2023

At this ARF Insights Studio, OptiMine provided attendees with real-world findings and success stories from large brands. Matt Voda, CEO, and Dr. Robert Cooley, Ph.D., CTO & Chief Data Scientist, detailed how they’ve navigated rapid budget adjustments, huge channel shifts, optimal timing of spend changes and outlined how to remain invested in marketing during budget pressure. Insights on key pitfalls to avoid, techniques to exploit and how to adapt during what is likely to be a very bumpy “recovery” were also shared.

Evidence-Based Research for Effective Marketing

  • Posted: June 7, 2023
On November 9, 2022, industry leaders joined us to share highlights from EffWorks Global 2022 — a week-long celebration of the best new thinking and evidence-based decision-making research for marketing effectiveness. Topics of discussion included: marketing in the post-Covid economy, effective advertising in unprecedented times, the value of Share of Voice/Share of Attention/Share of Search in terms of effectiveness and commercial decision making, and more.

Optimizing TV Promotion with Data, a Case Study with Warner Bros. Discovery

  • Posted: June 5, 2023

Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) worked with Civis Analytics (CA) to optimize their TV programming promotions over 30 U.S. networks that premieres dozens of seasons annually across a diverse linear TV portfolio. Max Schuman explained how CA’s approach blended classic marketing mix model (MMM)’s regression models with machine learning’s (ML) ability to discern relationships that best predict outcomes humans can’t see easily. With a custom model that was able to guide decision-making on several levels—what TV series to promote, how and where to market, and what ROI to expect—WBD used CA’s platform as a starting point for all media decisions throughout the full funnel, inclusive of owned and paid media.

Audi Switzerland Integrates Attention Metrics & AI into Programmatic Bidding to Drive Business Outcomes

  • Posted: June 5, 2023

Zach Kubin of Adelaide began the session by explaining how reach has become increasingly fragmented. Digital, viewability and ACR tell an incomplete story, which makes it difficult to assess the quality of the media brands are buying. Adelaide combines all the available metrics into their own algorithm, which they call the Attention Metric (AU). Filip Pujic of Audi gave details from the car company’s use case, where it integrated AU using Adelaide’s algorithm into programmatic bidding, driving positive business outcomes. Audi will conduct a follow-up study to validate the results they have received.

When Brands Go Dark, Extending the Evidence

  • Posted: June 1, 2023

This research replicates a 2021 study by Nicole Hartnett and colleagues who had analyzed what happens to sales when brands stop advertising for a year or longer. The difference in this new work is not only its focus on the impact of going dark on market share, but its use of much more extensive data, with farther-reaching conclusions and future research recommendations. It adds robustness to the prior evidence that when brands stop advertising, declines become more common and more significant, on average, as time increases.

Crisis and Opportunity – The Future of Media for Research and Measurement

  • Posted: June 1, 2023

Brian Wieser’s keynote address covered four trends that are affecting the media and advertising industries: industry consolidation, the rise of ad-free TV, the emergence of new e-commerce marketers and procurement. After his presentation, Scott McDonald probed him further about his observations about the state of the media and advertising marketplace in 2023. His key points on these four trends and highlights of Brian’s conversation with Scott appear below.

When Brands Go Dark, Extending the Evidence

When Brands Go Dark, Extending the Evidence

Nicole Hartnett, Ph.D – Senior Marketing Scientist, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute



This research replicates a 2021 study by Nicole Hartnett and colleagues who had analyzed what happens to sales when brands stop advertising for a year or longer. The difference in this new work is not only its focus on the impact of going dark on market share, but its use of much more extensive data, with farther-reaching conclusions and future research recommendations. It adds robustness to the prior evidence that when brands stop advertising, declines become more common and more significant, on average, as time increases. Whereas the 2021 study’s data were for a single product category — alcoholic beverages in Australia (bulk keg sales to bars and pubs and units sold by specialty alcohol retailers) — the 2023 data span 22 consumer goods categories and 365 brands sold widely in supermarkets in the U.S. Both studies look at brand size and prior trajectory conditions but the 2023 research adds whether the relationship between market share change and advertising cessation holds across product categories. Ultimately practitioners can use this work as a baseline to determine the possible effects of stopping advertising when advertising cuts are required, and as input into business cases to keep their ad budgets.

Key Takeaways

  • Market share, of brands that stopped advertising for at least one year, declined on average at a steady rate year over year.
  • Losses were quantified as declining by 10 percent after one year, 20 percent after two years and 28 percent after three years relative to the last advertised year, on average.
  • Brand size and market share trajectory before stopping advertising affect the rate of market share decline. Brands already in decline, and smaller brands suffered greater loss of market share.
  • This research adds to the evidence that advertising continuity over the long-term benefits brand performance.

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AUDIENCExSCIENCE 2023

AUDIENCExSCIENCE 2023

The ARF hosted its annual flagship conference, AUDIENCExSCIENCE 2023, on April 25-26, 2023. The industry’s biggest names and brightest minds came together to share new insights on the impact of changing consumer behavior on brands, insights into TV consumption, campaign measurement and effectiveness, whether all impressions are equal, join-up solutions across multiple media, the validity, reliability and predictive power of Attention measures, targeting diverse audiences, privacy’s effect on advertising and the impact of advertising in new formats. Keynotes were presented by Tim Hwang, author of Subprime Attention Crisis, Robert L. Santos of the U.S. Census Bureau, Brian Wieser of Madison and Wall, LLC and Andrea Zapata of Warner Bros. Discovery.

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