JULY 18 @ 12:00 PM – 1:45 PM EDT | Livestream
AGENDA
12:00 – 12:05pm
Welcome Remarks
Scott McDonald, Ph.D. – President & CEO, ARF
12:05 – 12:25pm
Opening Keynote
Escaping from Model Land: why forecasters should plan their exit routes in advance
Models are amazing! They help us to make great, reliable forecasts that improve our decision-making. But they can also mislead us into thinking we understand the future more than we really do. Dr Erica Thompson will talk about the perils and pitfalls of becoming stuck in Model Land – and two different ways to escape.
Erica Thompson Associate Professor of Modelling for Decision Making, UCL
Author of Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It
12:25 – 12:45pm
Marketing Science Institute: Charting the Future of Marketing Mix Model Best Practices
Changes in privacy policies have forced firms to pivot from modeling of individual customers to return to Marketing Mix Models (MMMs). MMMs rely on aggregate data to assess and predict the effects of changes in marketing spending on different marketing activities on sales or other KPIs and to optimize that spending. MSI member firms are being approached by vendors with new variants of MMM (e.g. AI variants). However, managers find it difficult to evaluate vendor claims of superiority either because the vendor’s model mechanics are opaque or because the users are not statisticians. This presentation will examine a major initiative MSI has undertaken to chart the future of MMM model best practices.
John Lynch, Executive Director, Marketing Science Institute
Martyn Crook, Vice President Analytics and Insights, United Health Group
12:45 – 1:05pm
Forecasting with Marketing Mix Modeling
In the current measurement landscape, Marketing Mix Modeling is the only methodology that offers a holistic view of total business performance. These models fuel causal based forecasts incorporating marketplace factors, marketing, media, supply chain, competition and much more. However, like any model, MMMs is no silver bullet. Ultimately, successful outcome requires full engagement across the organization, as well as an established gap to goal process to monitor performance against forecast, and course correct with agility. In this session, we will discuss how to establish a Marketing Mix Framework to forecast precisely where possible and simulate a variety of outcomes in times of instability.
Divya Kaur, VP, Analytic Consulting, IPG Mediabrands
Leslie Cheney, SVP, Analytic Consulting, IPG Mediabrands
1:05 – 1:25pm
Future Consumer Projection: The Key to Boosting Business Growth
High-value shoppers are essential to the long-term success of any business. Future Consumer Projection (FCP) is a powerful metric that enables businesses to measure the financial impact of marketing campaigns and initiatives, target ideal customers, identify issues to boost customer loyalty and retention, and increase revenue over time. In this session, we will discuss how FCP can be integrated across multiple touchpoints to allow for closed-loop activation, measurement, and insights. Together, these elements can complement and strengthen the accuracy of an FCP analysis.
Harvey Goldhersz, Executive Vice President, Product at Circana
Dimitris Kalamatianos, SVP/Principal Global Data Science Lead, Circana
1:25 – 1:45pm
Predicting Your Future Best Customers (It’s Easier Than You Think)
To know where, how and how much to invest in customer satisfaction and loyalty, companies need a reliable measure of customer lifetime value (CLV). The traditional “80/20 rule” suggests that a minority of customers account for a majority of revenue, but CLV models to identify these customers can be complex and require years of purchase data. In this presentation, Eric Anderson (Northwestern University) will demonstrate that a much simpler model using customers’ early purchase data can accurately identify retailers’ most profitable customers years ahead, even in the face of major disruptions to the marketplace and business models.
Eric Anderson, Polk Bros. Chair in Retailing, Professor of Marketing, Kellogg-McCormick MBAi
1:45pm
Closing Remarks
Scott McDonald, Ph.D. – President & CEO, ARF