In 2017, the ARF organized a conference, hosted at Google, to consider the predictive accuracy of different methods of business and political forecasting. Given that pre-election polls had been widely blamed for failing to predict the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election, half of the ARF program was devoted to a post-mortem assessment of the polling methodologies – comparing the canonical methods with newer methods based on social media monitoring, betting markets, momentum analysis and modeling of social indicators.
In December of 2020, one month after this year’s Presidential election, the ARF will return to the subjects explored in 2017 – updated to reflect advances in the field and lessons from the 2020 election. Topics will include:
The event agenda and a full list of speakers will be announced soon.