Throughout 2022, ARF members asked the Knowledge Center most frequently about advertising and marketing best practices in periods of recession and/or inflation. New insights on this topic come from the “Brands 2020” project by the ARF.
In this presentation, Paul Donato, CRO of the ARF, covered findings from the seminal year of the “What Brands Did in 2020” (Brands 2020) project. This project will go on for at least the next two years or until the effects of 2020 are no longer felt. ARF researchers in the Brands 2020 study used IRI and NCS data, Kantar Ad Insights, NCS sales and Nielsen Ad Intel data, between 2017 and 2021. The IRI data was a very deep dive but across three categories: salty snacks, pasta sauce and personal care products. The NCS data was shallower but across 10 broad categories. Using all these data, ARF researchers looked at share of media, media spend and share of market before and after March 2020 (Covid) and before and after March of 2021 (start of inflation).
Several previous studies agree that decreasing advertising during a recession can hurt sales during and after the period of economic contraction, whereas increasing advertising can increase sales, market share and earnings. An IPA study from the UK during the 2008 recession found that those that “went dark” tended to lose excess share of voice, the impact of which could take five years to recover. This UK study also showed a linear relationship between both ROI and an uplift in revenue as a function of advertising during a recession. The Brands 2020 study found more nuanced findings. Member Only AccessMorning Consult’s surveys find that consumers are increasingly “returning to normal”—meaning feeling more comfortable traveling, going to the movies and dining out.
Given the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties as well as technological and cultural changes, which trends will continue in 2023 and what new trends will emerge? Here is a summary of reports from Dentsu and other sources.
A survey among marketers conducted for the WARC Marketer’s Toolkit 2023, shows that almost half plan to increase their investment in performance, while less than a third plan increased branding spend. However, that is only part of the story. Read more »
On November 9, 2022, industry leaders joined us to share highlights from EffWorks Global 2022 — a week-long celebration of the best new thinking and evidence-based decision-making research for marketing effectiveness. Topics of discussion included: marketing in the post-Covid economy, effective advertising in unprecedented times, the value of Share of Voice/Share of Attention/Share of Search in terms of effectiveness and commercial decision making, and more.
Member Only AccessMarketing guru Les Binet recommends employing econometrics and focusing on price to support brands and maximize profit in inflationary times and during a recession.
On October 25, 2022, media and measurement experts shared the latest research-based insights about today’s media landscape at OTT 2022 held on the Warner Bros. Discovery Studio Lot in Burbank, CA. Attendees learned more about what viewers really want when it comes to FAST, AVOD and SVOD, and whether there are viable solutions for cross-platform measurement.
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While market share leadership is a strategic imperative for many leading companies, surprisingly little is known about market leaders. To rectify this, researchers in this MSI working paper looked into four key issues: (1) the frequency of market leaders maintaining their leadership over periods ranging from 5 to 89 years; (2) whether leading brands that lose their leadership are able to regain it or if loss of leadership tends to be permanent; (3) whether market leadership persistence varies as a function of economic conditions (i.e., GDP growth rate, inflation, unemployment); and (4) whether market leadership persistence varies by category type.
It appears that many consumers think we are (or will be) in a recession and so, are reevaluating their spending habits. This suggests that advertisers should start thinking about their strategies going forward.