A new study shows that using neuroscience-based methods is likely to increase the accuracy of real-world product sales.
This study, by academics in Canada, France and Germany, explored the ability of using different kinds of data to predict sales of new products before their launch. They compared in-house market data such as price and promotion level, customer attitudes based on a representative survey, and a neuroscience-based method: functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data, which were obtained from a relatively small sample of individuals and collected in a laboratory.
For the study, they used a large German retailer’s sales data to define an estimation data set to predict sales of 17 different new products, before they were launched.
- Results indicate that using fMRI data to forecast sales of new products significantly increased forecasting accuracy: It led to a 28% better forecast than a model that considered historic sales data only. A model combining all data led to an improvement of 38%.
This study is significant for two reasons. First, it used fMRI data to predict real-world sales of new products – which is hardly ever done. Second, it confirms that the inclusion of neuroscience-based methods is likely to increase the accuracy of research findings and that neuro-based data, while more expensive to obtain, are usually superior to survey data.
Source: Varga, M. et al. (2021, November 5).
Predicting Sales of New Consumer Packaged Products with fMRI, Survey and Market Data. Marketing Science Institute (MSI) Working Paper Series 2021 Report No. 21-139.
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