Media planning frameworks often assume that channels operate independently or compete within the same funnel stage. This research challenges that assumption by demonstrating that the largest performance gains come from cross-funnel synergies, particularly between upper-funnel television, middle-funnel digital media and lower-funnel promotions. Using a large-scale CPG dataset and a novel estimation–optimization approach, the study shows that explicitly modeling these interactions can materially improve media allocation decisions while also significantly increasing incremental revenue.
Member Only AccessRandomized experiments are widely viewed as the gold standard for measuring advertising incrementality, yet advertisers run them far less often than theory would predict. This MSI working paper develops a game-theoretic model of online advertising to explain why. By explicitly modeling the fixed and opportunity costs of experimentation—and the strategic role of ad platforms in setting reserve prices—the study shows how platforms may rationally discourage experimentation even when learning ad effectiveness could improve allocation efficiency. The findings offer a new economic explanation for persistently low experimentation rates in digital advertising markets.
Member Only AccessThe ARF Knowledge Center provides secondary research services for ARF and ARF-MSI members on a broad range of topics, especially in advertising, marketing and research best practices. Continuing the core trend from previous years, members tended to ask questions specific to their category or business interests. However, there were also a few hot topics that popped up across membership, such as sports marketing and sponsorships, influencer marketing and AI. In addition, there were some larger, broader trends in themes specific to each constituency, outlined below.
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