segmentations

Improving Viewership Projections: Forecasting for Data-Driven Audience Segments

  • Posted: June 26, 2023

Diana Saafi, Data Science Lead at Discovery, built on Cliff Young’s comments about the importance of multiple indicators for forecasting. Saafi forecasts linear television audiences in segments of interest to advertisers (beyond age-sex segments), rather than political outcomes. She and her team have found that their models have benefited from using multiple sources of data.  She recommended identifying signals that are most predictive, experimenting with different types of models (such as ARIMA models and AI models), continually refreshing the data in the models, and continually updating the models. While this process is now automated at Discovery, there are people who monitor changes in the predictions, which she referred to as “human-in-the-loop automation.”

Leveraging Purchase Signals to Drive Growth

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

Sharing their cross-channel campaign evaluation using IRI’s household lift studies, Lisa Mulyk and Liz Ryan from IRI illustrated the strengths of purchased-based data and targeting across brand portfolios. Creative messaging and sales for “must have” and “nice to have” products were examined, comparing the broader affinity, lifestyle and demo audience against the more specific purchase-based audience.

THE LAST WORD

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

Capping off the final day of sessions, Kantar’s Michelle Eule led a lively commentary on whether the generation consumers are born into really matters as an influence for marketing and if other psychographics or demographics are more important.

Behavioral Marketing to Grow Streaming Services?

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

In this presentation James Lamberti, CMO of Conviva, discussed opportunities for streaming platforms because of their measurement capabilities, particularly behavioral segmentation. The speaker examined the features of streaming platforms and exemplified how data gleaned from these platforms can lead to deep audience understanding, providing a more personalized and customized experience for the consumer.

DISCUSSION

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

This panel, moderated by Scott McDonald, led a discussion in response to the presentations on the generational implications in marketing and advertising. Topics of discussion included the notion of labels and challenges that can be associated with them, using generational attributes as a starting point or a “lens,” and the idea that while generations may be an indicator, values and certain behaviors can “transcend age.”

Generations are Messy but Meaningful

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

J. Walker thanked Bobby Duffy for his insights and perspectives and offered a somewhat different take: He stressed that generations are an important way to study social change. They are a useful construct, but they are not perfect. According to J. Walker, generations are best understood as an aggregation of life trajectories, shared circumstances and events as generational members come of age. Graduating during a recession or growing up in a pandemic will shape those generations. Cohorts who grow up at the same time and share common experiences, expectations and values matter for brands and culture. The shared starting point is the critical factor. Comparing Boomers at 20 years old with Millennials at 20 is the relevant point. A general comparison of Boomers vs. Millennials is not relevant.

The Generation Myth

  • Posted: June 20, 2023

Highlighting key points from his book, The Generation Myth: Why When You’re Born Matters Less Than You Think, Bobby Duffy presented his research on generational thinking as a powerful idea corrupted by stereotypes, myths, and cliches. As he tracked today’s generations over time (Pre-War, Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z) to see what is truly generational, Bobby looked for gaps between young and old on attitudes to everything from drinking, smoking, and loneliness to race, gender equality and climate change. He found that many analyses and forecasts about consumer behavior ignore the complexity of change, that is, they only look at one of the three mechanisms that cause changes: Cohort Effects—Behaviors, attitudes and beliefs that are more common among members of a generation; Period Effects—Changes resulting from events and circumstances that affect everybody, all generations, from war and disasters to periods of economic boom; Life-Cycle Effects—Members of all generations change as they grow older and experience getting married, having children, etc.  The key to using generational analyses in consumer behavior forecasts, therefore, is to untangle these three mechanisms and recognize the importance of period and life-cycle effects to avoid overstating cohort effects.

Managing the Transition to a Multi-Currency Market

  • Posted: June 16, 2023

These panelists agreed that, as Lizzy Daly (Comscore) put it, “the era of the single currency is over.” Both the buy side and the sell side, the panelists felt, accepted the advent of multiple trading currencies for television. This year, they concurred, will be a year of testing and evaluation of multiple currencies. They believe that the marketplace will be “healthier” (as Misha Williams of FreeWheel put it) with multiple players, which will foster innovation.

The Challenge of Churn

The Challenge of Churn

Mike Bloxham – EVP, Global Media & Entertainment, Magid

Tony Cardinale – SVP, Data Science, Magid

Media use has been changing rapidly and that requires paying constant attention to how viewers use services, for example, which streaming services they subscribe to and which they cancel. Churn among streaming service subscribers is typically seen as a negative: Providers try to minimize churn, maximize retention. Based on analyses of their Subscriber Science Monitor data, Magid researchers Mike Bloxham and Tony Cardinale offered a fresh perspective on the drivers of churn as well as on the implications of churn for content providers. They conclude that churn is inevitable—and that some churn is correlated to growth and cultural relevance. The key to their insights was a segmentation analysis that focused on viewers’ propensity to churn.

Key Takeaways

  • As SVOD has become mainstream, subscriber growth does not come from non-streamers anymore, but largely from churn between services. This makes churn an important issue that requires careful analysis to inform providers’ strategy.
  • Churn is not simply a reflection of the quality of the service. The analyses show that there are viewer segments with different predispositions to churn. As a result, it is important to look at the churn rates among each segment to get a full understanding of consumer sentiment.
  • Not all churn is negative. Some churn, driven by engaged viewers, is indicative of a healthy service. Subscribers with higher churn rates are likely among the most important to the content subscription platforms, as they are deeply involved in the content and are most active on social about that content.
  • To manage churn and resubscription, we need to recognize the different motivations of viewer segments. This is important for the health of a streaming business.

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What Drives Consumers to Share Their Data in Addressable TV?

What Drives Consumers to Share Their Data in Addressable TV?

  • JOURNAL OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH

Addressable advertising on television enables better targeting and measurement of TV ad campaigns, but gaining access to consumer data is essential for its effectiveness and development. So, what can advertisers do to make people more willing to share their data? New research offers insights into developing personalization initiatives aimed at alleviating privacy concerns.

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