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Forecasting Post-Pandemic Business Recovery


At ARF’s DATAxSCIENCE 2021, experts in forecasting and scenario planning presented the latest research and insights on understanding which changes in consumer behavior and attitudes will help shape the post-pandemic recovery. They also shared examples of different research methods and models to tap into these signals.

Key themes of the conference included:

  • The fundamentals did not change, and it’s important not to lose sight of the fundamentals that made brands successful.
  • Trends that became accelerated by the pandemic, such as anything related to technology and healthcare, are likely to continue.
  • What drives value may have changed for people.

Enjoy this recap of our DATAxSCIENCE 2021 event.

Key takeaways, the full event video, and presentations are available for ARF members:

If you are interested in becoming a corporate member, please contact New-Member-Info@thearf.org.


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How Long Can Brands Go Dark before Sales Suffer?


How long can large- and medium-size brands, with stable sales histories, afford to halt broad-reach advertising? The answer, according to a new study, is about two years before sales and market share start to shrink. Those brands are the exception. Previously declining brands, especially small ones, will see sales drop even further when going dark for a year.

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How Political Positioning Affects Brands

  • MSI

How much does political positioning affect a brand’s value and performance? Quite a lot, according to this new MSI working paper. It argues that business performance and firm value are driven, in part, by how closely a brand’s image aligns with that of the winning (or losing) party in a US presidential election. This goes beyond the impact of actual policy or regulatory changes. So how does a highly polarized political environment affect a brand? It presents opportunities and threats, which ultimately impact a firm’s value and performance.

How Does Guerilla Marketing Affect Shareholder Value?


Marketers under pressure to demonstrate how expenditures drive shareholder value will appreciate these new findings. Canadian researchers investigated guerilla marketing’s potential impact on a company’s stock price. In the first study of its kind, such campaigns were found to either boost or depress company shares, depending on the form of the appeal (emotion versus rational) and its mix with product types.

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