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Ask Customers for Predictions, Not Preferences

An article in Harvard Business Review suggests that prediction markets can provide a more accurate read of consumer preferences. While purchase intent may be overstated in survey responses, this gamified approach asks people to invest in answers to market research questions. “As with the stock market, the theory is that if you enable people to put their (play) money where their mouths are, you’ll get a truer picture of what is likely to have value in the real market.”

Agency Communispace tested this methodology, finding that winners and losers from prediction market results were nearly identical to those from traditional surveys or Maximum Difference studies. “Prediction markets appear to generate the same outcomes with fewer respondents, but along the way provide a far more nuanced read on consumers’ thinking and passions than do traditional methods. They let us immediately see which concepts are polarizing, because they attract significant positive and negative investment. We can also discern which ideas are most differentiated and attract the greatest passion based on the number of investors they attract and the average number of points invested.”

 

Read the full article.

For more on this topic, check out the Consumer Tab in Morning Coffee .

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